Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Offseason: Potential Trade Targets v. 2.0

Drew Pomeranz: Potential Trade Target?

Here, I outlined a few players the Pirates could target in trades this offseason to help the team in 2013 and beyond. Since then, the baseball landscape has changed drastically thanks to a blockbuster trade between the Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins.  As a result, I've put together a new list detailing players the Pirates should look to add via trade this offseason. Without a further ado, Offseason: Potential Trade Targets v. 2.0.





Drew Pomeranz

Pomeranz was a top 10 draft pick back in 2009 and rose quickly through the Indians system before being dealt to the Colorado Rockies as part of the Ubaldo Jimenez trade.  Coming into the 2012 season, Pomeranz was a top 25 prospect, and although he struggled in a half season stint (posting a 4.49 xFIP), he showed a good strikeout rate and the promise that earned him a label as a safe starter with #2 upside.

If the Pirates were to deal for him, he would be under contract in Pittsburgh through 2018.  A starter with his upside and team control would be fairly expensive, but something the Pirates could handle.  A package of Nick Kingham, Willy Garcia, Drew Maggi, and Jason Creasy could probably bring back Pomeranz.  I believe that would be a good price for the Pirates to pay.

Travis D'Arnaud

This is a bit of a weird trade target because D'Arnaud hasn't even played in the major leagues and is a top prospect.  However, the Blue Jays just made a blockbuster trade with the Marlins and it displayed a win-now mentality.  The trade also brought back John Buck, meaning the Blue Jays have starting catcher J.P. Arencibia and Buck to back him up.  The Blue Jays may be willing to take Hanrahan and prospects back, say Josh Bell and Zack Von Rosenberg, for D'Arnaud.

In return, the Pirates would get a catcher that could start opening day and remain their starter at catcher for the next six years.  D'Arnaud has overall all-star potential, with an ability to hit for average, get on-base, and hit for power.  In addition, he's a more than adequate defensive catcher.  In fact, D'Arnaud could become the best catcher in baseball in the next few years and no one would be surprised.  That could be massive for the Pirates while Andrew McCutchen is still in town.  As a bonus, D'Arnaud would get to reunite with his brother, Pirates shortstop Chase D'Arnuad.

Giancarlo Stanton

The absolute grand prize.  If Justin Upton makes Pirates fans drool, then Stanton should make the drool double.  Santon is already the best power hitter in the game and he's only turned 23 in early November.  In addition to having prodigious pop, Stanton is able to also hit for solid average and get on-base.  In the field, he's above adequate in right field.  If he came to Pittsburgh, he'd be a beast in the middle-of-the-order with McCutchen for the next 4 years.

Stanton is pissed at the Marlins fire sale and his attitude might make him the next victim.  The Pirates would have to pay significantly to get Stanton in prospects.  A package like Alex Presley, Jeff Locke, Josh Bell, Luis Heredia, Barrett Barnes, and Adalberto Santos could be enough for Stanton.  Even adding more would be acceptable, as long as the Pirates can keep Cole, Marte, Taillon, Polanco, and Hanson, a group of players that could make an impact in 2014-2016, when the Pirates will also have Alvarez, Walker, Locke, McPherson, Tabata, and Marte in addition to McCutchen and Stanton.  The Marlins might be amenable to this as they are clearly playing for the future and a package centered around Bell, Heredia, and Barnes would fit well with Nicolino, Marisnick, and other prospects they just received.   

37 comments:

  1. Stanton does make me drool. thought of a possible trade as soon as i saw his tweet. only name that makes me pause is Heredia, still have huge hope for him. but Stanton would put this team so close to a world series it would be worth it

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  2. I would give even more than that for Stanton. Without blinking.

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  3. so 1 year of hanrahan, a fringe prospect, and josh bell, who hasn't done much to impress, will net d'Arnaud? Hardly.

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    1. They are clearly in win-now mode and that changes how much they value Hanrahan. Make it Nick Kingham instead of Von Rosenberg or Kyle McPherson.

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    2. Instead of Von Rosenberg.

      That's probably a better trade for both sides. McPherson + Bell + Hammmer for D'Arnuad and a few throw back fringe prospects from the Jays (C or C+ prospects).

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  4. Would like to get d'Arnaud from Jays but given that Buck is not the greatest hitter, his 2010 season seems to be an outlier season I expect the Jays to go with d'Arnaud and have Buck around as plan B if d'Arnaud can't do the job.

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    1. Remember they have Arencibia and he is more proven in the bigs and the Jays might prefer that considering their organizational direction at the moment.

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  5. You'd need 2 of Henson, Polanco, Cole, Taillon before they'd even pick up the phone. Stanton's BR comps are:

    Juan Gonzalez (934)
    Boog Powell (934)
    Bob Horner (933)
    Tony Conigliaro (924)
    Frank Robinson (921) *
    Miguel Cabrera (920)

    And Juan Gone was juicing his whole career.

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    1. That 6 player package is a heck of a package, although you might be right. You might have to take out Jeff Locke and put in Jameson Taillon instead or Polanco/Marte instead of Barnes (not both). If they aren't willing to do that, then I'd pass. Stanton is really good, but he's also been injured, could turn into a .240/.310/.520 guy instead of a .280/.360/.560 guy, and will get really expensive as soon as he hits arbitration. The Pirates can't sell their farm system for him, especially when in all honesty, OF is a area of strength. It could just be prudent to keep where we are and look for a young C, SS, or pitcher(s). I mean around 2015, the options for the OF should be Cutch, Marte, Snider, Tabata, Presley, and Polanco. You should be able to find 3 good starts out of that bunch.

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  6. Why stop at asking for Travis d'Arnaud? Y'all should just call up Jerry DiPoto and tell him you'll give him Zack Vonwhateverberg for Mike Trout.

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    1. Good idea.

      D'Arnaud is basically as good as Trout and Josh Bell and Joel Hanrahan might as well be a bag of balls and one of those 5$ off at Theme Park X coupons.

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    2. First off, a team with several quality young relievers making peanuts, and an established closer, isn't going to see much value in Hanrahan. This Von Rosenberg guy appears to have posted a 4+ ERA last year as a 21-year-old repeating A-ball, with declining peripherals to boot; he's near enough worthless. Bell's a nice piece, but how valuable do you think he is coming off a full year missed due to injury?

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    3. I said replace Zach Von Rosenberg (who is far from worthless; he's similar to Kevin Comer and guys that you signed and traded to the Astros, granted for pennies, but that was an awful, awful trade by AA) with Nick Kingham.

      Second, Hanrahan is one of the better relievers in baseball. He holds plenty of value to a team when he would easily be the best reliever on their team and would assume the closer role. He's not expensive, the Pirates could offer trade relief, and Bell is still as valuable as a fringe top 100 prospect.

      An elite closer, a fringe top 100 outfielder and a top 200 prospect in Kingham (not ZVR) is a fair offer for a top 25 prospect who hasn't really proven anything yet. Granted, AA could pass on that offer and I wouldn't blame him, but it's not "Zack Vonwhateverberg for Mike Trout."

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    4. If by "similar" you mean "older and has a longer track record of failure" than Comer et al, sure.

      Hanrahan is one the better relievers in baseball, sure...unless you look at fWAR, which says that he was worse than literally every non-Cordero reliever the Blue Jays used last year. rWAR is more charitable, but still maintains that Janssen (the incumbent closer) and Oliver were better than Hanrahan last year, which they pretty clearly were. Certainly you could make the case that Hanrahan would be an upgrade over, say, Lincoln or Rogers, but enough of one to move one the best prospects in baseball? That's absurd.

      "An elite closer, a fringe top 100 outfielder and a top 200 prospect in Kingham (not ZVR) is a fair offer for a top 25 prospect who hasn't really proven anything yet." I'll give you Janssen, DJ Davis, and Deck McGuire for Cole. Sound like a horrific offer? That's probably because it is.

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    5. Not if Cole was blocked and the Pirates were trying to win now lol.

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  7. Toronto just traded Nestor Molina this season for Sergio Santos, Eric Thames for Steve Delabar, and of course Travis Snider for Brad Lincoln. Sounds like their bullpen would be the last place they need help.

    But you never know... Maybe they just have a reliever fetish. Haha

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  8. D'Arnaud would be ideal but I feel that your package of players wouldn't get a deal done.

    P.S. Please stop with the, "Without a further ado". Try using, 'without further ado' .... Thanks. :)

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  9. Caught this post off your handle on minorleagueball. As a neutral party Giants fan on that Stanton trade scenario, I just have to say if I'm the Marlins, ain't no way I'm giving up Stanton without getting back one of Cole/Taillon and most likely both. Then we'll talk about the poo poo platter of the back end of the top 10. But hey! The Pirates actually have the name pitchers that might land the big fish!

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    1. Welcome! Thanks for reading. I realize my offer was probably too low, but that's where I'd start. In the long run, I'd be willing to start with a Taillon + Heredia package and work from there.

      I'm also talking about legitimate prospects. Maybe a Presley/Tabata, Locke/McPherson, and then Barnes and Kingham or something like that, and then get a few quasi-prospects back from the Marlins to make the numbers more even.

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  11. Stanton unlikely to be traded, since he does not have an 8-figure contract. Pomeranz unlikely to be traded, Rockies are desperate for pitching and Drew has shown signs of being effective in Coors. d'Arnaud is probably the best bet of your 3 - he might be available for a package of Cole and Mathisen - I'd have to think about that if I were in charge, getting a top 10 prospect at a position of organizational weakness for one at a position of organizational strength.

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    1. After doing this, the idea would be to swap Hanrahan for a young SP and re-sign Grilli or else gobble up some other FA closer-type.

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  12. How about forget giving up anything and sticking with the plan? The naysayers can be proven wrong. Just because a guy has one bad year; you don't give up on him. Bell is going to be a stud. How long did it take Mr. Trout to make it. He has been on the radar for a few years now. The Pirates do have a glut of pitching coming through, but remember why they drafted it. It is the most expensive commodity out there. Look what Guthrie got. They need the arms to come in waves because they aren't going to be able to afford them. And by-th-way, 21 isn't old by any means for a prospect in A ball.

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    1. I don't disagree. We don't need to make any trades. On Bell though, Trout's rookie year this year is the equivalent of Bell's 2014 year and I doubt Bell puts up 10+ WAR in the majors in 2014.

      Plus, although Trout was drafted two years earlier than Bell, he's only one year older. 21 isn't old for a prospect in A ball, but it's far from the ARL you want from an elite prospect.

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  13. I would say for Stanton it might start with Taillon and Marte and Palanco.. Stanton has the chance to be a game changer..Marte would give them a real good/ young outfielder..Taillon would be a #2 starter next year(2014)..Palanco is going to be 2 years away..Remember no good FA will ever be coming to Pittsburgh..

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  14. No Saltalamacchia?

    I agree with the commenters that these offers tend to be light. d'Arnaud especially I would expect to cost a mint -- if they want to unload a catcher, I figure they'd be keeping one of Buck and Arencibia as a Proven Major Leaguer bridge to d'Arnaud.

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    1. That's what I'd assume too, but reports are they want to keep Arencibia. Haven't said anything about moving D'Arnaud, but that's the next logical conclusion.

      To answer you first question, version 3.0. is in draft :P

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    2. Hm. I can find a couple different rumors (which are probably about as useful as what I paid for them). Some of them suggest they want to keep d'Arnaud in the minors to start with, others suggest they might be willing to trade him, though that was so cryptically written I couldn't really tell what it said. Anyway, seems mysterious.

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