Projecting The Offense: Right Field

Right field is the toughest position to project; the Pirates entered Spring Training appearing to give the majority of playing time to Travis Snider, who is attempting to stick in the majors for the sixth time, with Jose Tabata backing him up – perhaps in a platoon. However, Garrett Jones will get the Opening Day start, with both Snider and Tabata on the bench. What is almost certain is that right field is a position that will be in a state of flux for the first half of the season at least.

Travis Snider: 

2012 (Minors): 246 PA, 16 doubles, 0 triples, 13 home runs, .335/.423/.598, .435 wOBA, 2 stolen bases 

2012 (Majors): 185 PA, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 4 home runs, .250/.319/.378, .307 wOBA, 2 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 312 PA, 19 doubles, 1 triple, 11 home runs, .278/.345/.468, .352 wOBA, 5 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 497 PA, 27 doubles, 1 triple, 13 home runs, .253/.312/.403, .310 wOBA, 9 stolen bases 

Oliver: 482 PA, 23 doubles, 2 triples, 15 home runs, .255/.319/.421, .320 wOBA, 9 stolen bases 

Projecting The Offense: Center Field

Out of all of my Projecting the Offense series, this post is the easiest. Andrew McCutchen is the club’s best hitter and will lead the offense again in 2013. The only thing that could hold him back from being a prominent player in the MVP conversation is his team mates – given the BBWAA’s preference for players to win the award being members of contending teams. 

2012: 673 PA, 29 doubles, 6 triples, 31 home runs, .327/.400/.553, .403 wOBA, 20 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 675 PA, 34 doubles, 6 triples, 24 home runs, .286/.372/.483, .363 wOBA, 22 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 673 PA, 31 doubles, 6 triples, 24 home runs, .283/.372/.480, .365 wOBA, 23 stolen bases 

Oliver: 626 PA, 29 doubles, 5 triples, 25 home runs, .290/.374/.500, .375 wOBA, 23 stolen bases 

Projecting The Offense: Left Field

When Starling Marte finally arrived in the big leagues last summer, he became the 28th player in major-league history to go deep on his first pitch seen. Marte really came as advertised; power, speed and great defense combined with little patience at the plate. While Clint Hurdle’s old-school approach to building a line-up will likely force Marte into a role that his skillset is not really suited for, he should still continue to develop into one of the more dynamic Pittsburgh Pirates hitters. 

2012 (Minors): 431 PA, 21 doubles, 13 triples, 12 home runs, .286/.347/.500, .372 wOBA, 21 stolen bases 

2012 (Majors): 182 PA, 16 doubles, 6 triples, 5 home runs, .257/.300/.437, .316 wOBA, 12 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 551 PA, 28 doubles, 11 triples, 15 home runs, .297/.336/.479, .350 wOBA, 31 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 578 PA, 27 doubles, 14 triples, 11 home runs, .264/.311/.428, .317 wOBA, 24 stolen bases 

Oliver: 602 PA, 27 doubles, 9 triples, 16 home runs, .268/.317/.436, .325 wOBA, 27 stolen bases 

Projecting The Offense: Shortstop

Clint Barmes will enter the season in his final year of the two year, $10.5M contract that he signed in November 2011. With no obvious internal replacement and a weak free agent market at shortstop next winter, he could very easily play his way into a contract extension. However, in order to do so, Barmes will have to provide more of an offensive contribution that he managed in 2012. 

2012: 493 PA, 16 doubles, 1 triple, 8 home runs, .229/.272/.321, .260 wOBA, 0 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 441 PA, 21 doubles, 1 triple, 9 home runs, .233/.286/.353, .273 wOBA, 2 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 475 PA, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 9 home runs, .237/.291/.353, .280 wOBA, 3 stolen bases 

Oliver: 502 PA, 20 doubles, 1 triple, 10 home runs, .234/.297/.349, .283 wOBA, 3 stolen bases 

Projecting The Offense: Third Base

Pedro Alvarez took a step forward in 2012 after a miserable 2011, hitting 30 home runs on his way to becoming one of the strongest hitters in the Pirates line-up. While it appears that Alvarez will begin the season as the Pirates clean-up hitter, he will need to continue to progress at the plate this season if he is going to find success in this role.

2012: 586 PA, 25 doubles, 1 triple, 30 home runs, .244/.317/.467, .335 wOBA, 1 stolen base

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 597 PA, 29 doubles, 2 triples, 29 home runs, .257/.336/.481, .349 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

ZiPS: 610 PA, 26 doubles, 2 triples, 29 home runs, .236/.315/.451, .327 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

Oliver: 548 PA, 24 doubles, 2 triples, 22 home runs, .234/.313/.427, .320 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

Projecting The Offense: Second Base

Neil Walker is firmly entrenched as the Bucs second baseman and he’s accumulated 8.5 wins above replacement since he converted to the position in 2010. Offensively, only four second basemen that would have qualified for the battle title surpassed Walker’s park adjusted wRC+ of 111 in 2012, only dropping to seventh on the list over the 2010-2012 period with a 112 wRC+ (.336 wOBA). While Walker has become a solid contributor offensively, there is an area where he could improve. 

2012: 530 PA, 27 doubles, 14 home runs, .280/.342/.426,.334 wOBA, 7 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 647 PA, 40 doubles, 2 triples, 17 home runs, .275/.337/.435,.336 wOBA, 9 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 617 PA, 35 doubles, 3 triples, 16 home runs, .270/.332/.430, .328 wOBA, 8 stolen bases 

Oliver: 584 PA, 29 doubles, 3 triples, 15 home runs, .270/.332/.423, .331 wOBA, 8 stolen bases 

Projecting The Offense: First Base

The Pirates will begin the year with Garrett Jones platooning with Gaby Sanchez at first base. If Spring Training line-ups are anything to go by, Sanchez projects to hit in the clean-up spot when the club faces a southpaw, with Jones hitting in the fifth spot against righties. It’s a situation that could provide the club with a lot of value if both players can produce in the role, with Sanchez being the bigger question mark as Jones is will begin his third year in a platoon role.

Garrett Jones:

2012: 515 PA, 28 doubles, 3 triples, 27 home runs, .274/.317/.516, .352 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 445 PA, 27 doubles, 1 triple, 20 home runs, .254/.315/.454, .331 wOBA, 4 stolen bases

ZiPS: 482 PA, 29 doubles, 2 triples, 20 home runs, .253/.313/.446, .324 wOBA, 5 stolen bases

Oliver: 483 PA, 28 doubles, 2 triples, 20 home runs, .253/.318/.443, .328 wOBA, 4 stolen bases

Projecting The Offense: Catcher

Russell Martin is the first player up as I look at 2013 projections. He received the largest major league contract that the franchise has ever given a free agent to upgrade the club both defensively and offensively. He is also the major/only addition to a below average offense, so will need to improve on his 2012 performance if the Pirates are going to see the upgrade that the team as a whole requires if the club will continue to progress in 2013. 

2012: 485 PA, 18 doubles, 21 home runs, .211/.311/.403,.316 wOBA, 6 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 524 PA, 22 doubles, 16 home runs, .242/.340/.394,.322 wOBA, 8 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 466 PA, 19 doubles, 12 home runs, .238/.329/.373, .310 wOBA, 7 stolen bases 

Oliver: 484 PA, 21 doubles, 16 home runs, .244/.333/.408, .325 wOBA, 5 stolen bases