The Swing Frequencies of the Pirates Offense

The 2013 season is 19 games old for the Pittsburgh Pirates; yet hot or cold starts are still nothing more than that in most cases due to the small sample size of the season. However, a hitter’s swing rate is something that tends to begin to stabilize early on in the season (at around 50 plate appearances) and the Bucs have eight hitters that can be examined using this statistic.

Starling Marte's Hot Start

Through the first thirteen games of the season, Starling Marte has a triple slash line of .370/.404/.519 in 57 plate appearances, picking up 20 hits – five of which went for extra bases (three doubles, one triple and a home run) - and is currently on a nine-game hitting streak. Marte has been the Pirates’ best hitter so far; his .402 wOBA is almost 50 points higher than Travis Snider’s .355 wOBA.

The Current Focus on Splits in Clint Hurdle's Line-Ups

Clint Hurdle’s line-ups so far this season have had a focus on spits (with a lefty-righty balance against right-handed pitching). For example, the clean-up spot has been filled by Pedro Alvarez against right-handers and Gaby Sanchez against lefties, with Garrett Jones and Neil Walker hitting second against righties and Russell Martin against lefties (although Walker will hit second against Clayton Kershaw tonight). The only consistencies have been Starling Marte leading off, Andrew McCutchen hitting third and Clint Barmes eighth.

A Look At The Current Batting Order

Clint Hurdle has elected to continue with the Opening Day line-up for the second game of the season, despite the Pirates offense struggling in the season opener with Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija on the mound. While much of the focus centered around Gaby Sanchez’s presence ahead of Travis Snider, I believe that Hurdle’s line-up is really the bigger issue.

Notes After Opening Day

The 2013 season did not begin in an ideal fashion for the Pittsburgh Pirates, dropping the opener to the Cubs while offering little at the plate. Nonetheless, one defeat doesn’t mean that the Pirates are going to struggle, much like a win today wouldn’t have meant that the Bucs were going to be contenders. The Pirates have a shot at bouncing back on Wednesday night, with Wandy Rodriguez getting the start against Edwin Jackson. Drawing conclusions on how the season is likely to pan out would be nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction at this point; however there are some noteworthy items after today's game:

Pittsburgh's 25-Man Roster Set For Opening Day

The Pirates have finalised their 25-man roster ahead of today’s opener against the Chicago Cubs.

Projecting The Offense: Center Field

Out of all of my Projecting the Offense series, this post is the easiest. Andrew McCutchen is the club’s best hitter and will lead the offense again in 2013. The only thing that could hold him back from being a prominent player in the MVP conversation is his team mates – given the BBWAA’s preference for players to win the award being members of contending teams. 

2012: 673 PA, 29 doubles, 6 triples, 31 home runs, .327/.400/.553, .403 wOBA, 20 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 675 PA, 34 doubles, 6 triples, 24 home runs, .286/.372/.483, .363 wOBA, 22 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 673 PA, 31 doubles, 6 triples, 24 home runs, .283/.372/.480, .365 wOBA, 23 stolen bases 

Oliver: 626 PA, 29 doubles, 5 triples, 25 home runs, .290/.374/.500, .375 wOBA, 23 stolen bases 

Projecting The Offense: Left Field

When Starling Marte finally arrived in the big leagues last summer, he became the 28th player in major-league history to go deep on his first pitch seen. Marte really came as advertised; power, speed and great defense combined with little patience at the plate. While Clint Hurdle’s old-school approach to building a line-up will likely force Marte into a role that his skillset is not really suited for, he should still continue to develop into one of the more dynamic Pittsburgh Pirates hitters. 

2012 (Minors): 431 PA, 21 doubles, 13 triples, 12 home runs, .286/.347/.500, .372 wOBA, 21 stolen bases 

2012 (Majors): 182 PA, 16 doubles, 6 triples, 5 home runs, .257/.300/.437, .316 wOBA, 12 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 551 PA, 28 doubles, 11 triples, 15 home runs, .297/.336/.479, .350 wOBA, 31 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 578 PA, 27 doubles, 14 triples, 11 home runs, .264/.311/.428, .317 wOBA, 24 stolen bases 

Oliver: 602 PA, 27 doubles, 9 triples, 16 home runs, .268/.317/.436, .325 wOBA, 27 stolen bases 

Pirates Positional Players Depth Chart: Next Man Up

Updated 2/13/2013.

Please note and make use of the scroll bar at the bottom of the screen as there is additional info on the right side of this chart.

Depth Chart Key
Pitchers Depth Chart

Position	Player	Acquired	ST	OL	40/R5	Bats	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
C	Russell Martin	FA13	>6.000		Yes	R	30/$6.5	31/$8.5
	Michael McKenry	TR11	1.136	1	Yes	R	28	29	30	31	32
	Tony Sanchez	DR09	0.000	3	2012	R	AAA	25	26	27	28	29
1B	Garrett Jones	MiFA08	3.158	0	Yes	L	31/$4.5	32	33
	Gaby Sanchez	TR12	3.025		Yes	R	29/$1.75	30	31
	Clint Robinson	TR13	0.007	2	Yes	L	28	29	30	31	32	33
	Matt Curry	DR10	0.000	3	2013	L	AA	25	26	27	28	29
2B	Neil Walker	DR04	2.166	1	Yes	SW	27	28	29	30
	Ivan De Jesus Jr	TR13	0.147	0	No	R	AAA	26	27	28	29	30
	Jarek Cunningham	DR08	0.000	3	2012	R	AA	AAA	25	26	27	28
SS	Clint Barmes	FA12	>6.000		Yes	Allegedly	34/$5.5
	Jordy Mercer	DR08	0.118	2	Yes	R	26	27	28	29	30	31
	Chase d’Arnaud	DR08	0.125	1	Yes	R	26	27	28	29	30	31
3B	Pedro Alvarez	DR08	2.085	0	Yes	L	261/$700k	272	28	29
	Josh Harrison	TR09	1.095	1	Yes	R	25	26	27	28	29
LF	Starling Marte	Int FA07	0.070	3	Yes	R	24	25	26	27	28	29
	Alex Presley	DR06	1.091	1	Yes	L	27	28	29	30	31
	Adalberto Santos	DR10	0.000	3	2013	R	AAA	26	27	28	29	30
	Barrett Barnes	DR12	0.000	3	2015	R	A+	AA	AAA	24	25	26
CF	Andrew McCutchen	DR05	3.123	3	Yes	R	26/$4.5	27/$7.25	28/$10	29/$13	30/$14	31/$14.753
	Gregory Polanco	Int FA09	0.000	3	2013	L	A+	AA	AAA	24	25	26
	Mel Rojas, Jr.	DR10	0.000	3	2013	SW	AA	AAA	24	25	26	27
RF	Travis Snider	TR12	2.091		Yes	L	25	26	27	28
	Jose Tabata	TR08	2.081	1	Yes	R	24	25	26	27	284	29
	Jerry Sands	TR13	0.094	1	2015	R	25	26	27	28	29	30
	Josh Bell	DR11	0.000	3	2015	SW	A+	AA	AAA	23	24	25
	Player projected to start the year in AAA and get called up mid-season; not eligible for arbitration
	Player is in a pre-arbitration year; contract is Major League minimum unless otherwise noted
	Player is arbitration eligible; salary (if noted) = arbitration results
	Player is under contract
	Either the Pirates or the player may exercise an option; details provided below the chart

¹ The Pirates exercised a team option for 2013 on 10/31/2012

² The Pirates have a team option for $700,000 for 2014. The player may void the option if eligible for arbitration.

³ The Pirates have a team option for 2018.

⁴ The Pirates have team options for 2017, 2018, and 2019.

All courtesy of Trogluddite
Key

In Defense of the Front Office

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't completed a season with a winning record in two decades.  While all of that isn't on current general manager Neal Huntington's hands, a good chunk - arguably one-fourth - of it is.  Therefore, to claim Huntington is or should be immune from intense criticism would be asinine. That's undeniable.

All that hashed out, I personally believe Neal Huntington, and the entire front office he has assembled, have the Pirates on the right track. In addition, I think there is evidence indicating such a statement is true.  My argument consists of several factors, broken down piece-by-piece in the paragraphs below.

Winter League Update

During the offseason between the 2012 season and the 2013 season, several members of the Pirates organization have participated in Winter Leagues. Notable players who have received a substantial amount of playing time are listed below. Included below each player's name is their exploits during the offseason.

Concerns Regarding Jerry Sands

Many fans (and Pirates bloggers) have seen Jerry Sands as a platoon option with Travis Snider for next season, however Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe passes on an account from a General Manager in the America League that would cast doubt on the potential success of this, despite Sands having the ability to hit breaking balls: “He’s one of those guys who could all of a sudden put up a big year if he gets the chance to play every day... Don’t think he’ll be that effective off someone’s bench. He’s got to get into a rhythm at the plate and when he does, he can hit.” This assessment of Sands is concerning, as it reminds me a lot of Steve Pearce. 

Joel Hanrahan Traded To The Red Sox

The Joel Hanrahan deal is finally complete, with the closer and Brock Holt heading to the Red Sox in exchange for Jerry Sands, Stolmy Pimentel, Ivan De Jesus Jr and Mark Melancon. Chad Beck has  been designated for assignment in a corresponding roster move to make room on the 40-man roster for Sands, Pimentel and Melancon. 

The Pirates and Taking the Platoon Advantage

Andrew McCutchen is the Pirates' best hitter by a wide margin and performs at a high level when facing both left and right handed pitching – highlighted by weighted on-base averages of .471 against lefties and .385 against righties in 2012. The problem is that he’s also the only Pirate to provide above average production at the plate against both sets of pitchers. One of the focuses I have had over this winter over at Pirates Musings, as well as my brief time here, is on the benefits of using platoons or at least taking advantage of platoon situations, something the Pirates should be looking to do on an everyday basis.

Pirates, Red Sox Agree Hanrahan on Deal

Joel Hanrahan’s tenure with the Pittsburgh Pirates has almost come to an end. The Hammer has been sent to the Red Sox along with another Pirate as part of a six player deal, with Boston sending first baseman/corner outfielder Jerry Sands, right handed pitcher Stolmy Pimentel and two others to the Bucs. The full extent of the deal is unknown at this point as well as currently pending physicals. 

Pirates And Francisco Liriano Agree To Two-Year Deal

The Pirates have agreed to a two-year deal with free agent left-handed starting pitcher Francisco Liriano, which will guarantee him $12.75M according to Jon Heyman, plus some incentives. The move is subject to a physical, so the deal will not be completed until after Christmas.

Payroll Options: 2014 and Beyond

The Neal Huntington era of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization is coming to a head.  There has been success - the Pirates have been in contention for a playoff spot well into the summer the past two years - mixed with failures - contention has turned into losing seasons thanks to back-to-back epic collapses.  Because of that mix, Huntington's job is in question.  Fortunately for him, the Pirates should still be competitive the next few years, thanks in large part to superstar Andrew McCutchen and a group of veteran players, notably A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, Clint Barmes, and brand-new Pirate Russell Martin.  All four of those players have something else in common in addition to donning the black and gold.  All four have their current contracts expire by the end of the 2014 season at the latest.

International Bounty: 2012

Julio De La Cruz at the plate.

The Pirates have willingly spent significantly more money in Latin America during Neal Huntington's tenure.  Part of the new emphasis in Latin America has come from a directive put forth by team owner Bob Nutting.  Thus far, the results have been mixed.  Overall, the Latin American pipeline has been a boon over the past few years, with Starling Marte, Luis Heredia, Alen Hanson, and Gregory Polanco all becoming top prospects in all of baseball.  Interestingly, Heredia is the only player of the four who received a significant bonus, which turned out to be a seven-figure bonus.

As long as we're jumping to conclusions

Ok, I'll admit that title is pretty snarky. I've said a number of times in a number of places to a number of people that I think it's too early in the season to learn anything meaningful from the results. For the most part, this has been aimed at the results from Pittsburgh's major league ballclub. At the same time, I want to take a look at some things that we've seen from the Pirates' minor league affiliates. Therefore, I'm going to ignore the admittedly small sample sizes and take a look at what we've seen so far from down on the farm. If you want to point out that this is pretty hypocritical, go ahead. That's probably true. Still, I will start off by pointing out that since it is early in the year, a lot can change (for better or worse). Of course, you already knew that. Anyway, here what we know beyond a shadow of a doubt about the Pirates' minor leaguers.

Minor League Daily Update - 4/13/2012

The Indians dropped another close game, this time losing to the Columbus Clippers 5-4.  Jeff Locke had a rocky outing as the starter, giving up 5 earned runs on 8 hits in 5.0 innings.  Locke did not walk a batter and struck out 3.  Daniel Moskos pitched a perfect inning in relief.  At the plate, Starling Marte hit leadoff and went 1-4 with a strikeout.  Jordy Mercer went 1-4 with 2 strikeouts, but the one hit was a three run blast.  Eric Fryer went 1-4 with a run scored.  Brandon Boggs managed the rare golden sombrero, going 0-4 with 4 strikeouts.

The Curve lost their contest against the Richmond Flying Squirrels 7-3.  Mike Colla started and lasted 5.0 innings, giving up 9 hits, 6 runs (4 earned), while striking out 2 batters and walking one.  Robbie Grossman hit lead off for the Curve and went 1-4 with 2 strikeouts.  He has still yet to walk and has struck out 8 times in 26 at-bats.  Brock Holt went 2-4 with a run scored and a strikeout.  Jarek Cunningham went 0-3 with a walk, a run scored, and a strikeout.  Tony Sanchez matched Cunningham with an identical line.  Matt Curry went 1-4.

Bradenton lost a pitching duel 1-0 to Fort Myers.  Colton Cain got the nod as the starter for the Pirates and had a solid outing.  He lasted 5.0 innings and gave up 2 hits and a walk.  Cain also struck out 2 batters.  At the dish, Mel Rojas Jr. by far had the best game of the Marauders hitters.  Playing right field, Rojas Jr. went 3-3 with a double and a triple.  Wes Freeman went 0-3 with a strikeout and a walk.  Alex Dickerson, Drew Maggi, and Gift Ngoepe each had a single, all going 1-4 with Dickerson adding a strikeout to his final daily line.

The Power managed to prevent an affiliate sweep of losing, beating Greenville 5-1.  Matt Benedict started for the Power and the Orlando Castro came in to pitch most of the rest of the game in relief.  Both had excellent outings.  Benedict lasted 5.0 innings, giving up 5 hits and an unearned run.  He also struck out 4 batters while only walking 1 batter.  Castro struck out 4 batters in 3.0 innings, while only walking one and giving up a sole hit.  Jordan Cooper also pitched a perfect inning with a strikeout.  Offensively, 4 power players had big days.  Alen Hanson hit leadoff for the Power and went 3-4 with 3 runs scored, a triple, a homerun, a walk, and a strikeout.  His OPS on the year now stands at 1.297 and Hanson has maintained a solid 4:6 BB:K ratio in 34 at-bats.  Jose Osuna also had 3 hits, including 2 doubles, a walk and a strikeout.  Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco each had 2 base knocks.  Bell added a double and a strikeout.  Polanco added a homerun - his second in as many days - and a walk.