Best Case Scenario: Pitching Prospects

The title of this article is slightly misleading.  It's very rare for a best case scenario to actually happen. A better scenario can always be imagined. Therefore, the Pirates pitching prospects could have technically done better this year, but realistically it's hard to imagine a better overall season for the pitching strength of the Pirates farm system as a whole.  In fact, elation is probably the best word to describe the appropriate reaction of Pirates fans.  Below is a short description of all the pitchers who have a very good year for the Pirates, based loosely starting at the top on how they are viewed as a prospect currently.

Dissecting the Pirates Farm System

Over the past several years, the Pirates farm system has steadily improved under the watch of general manager Neal Huntington.  At the moment, prior to the official graduation of Gerrit Cole, it may be at its zenith.  The farm system is absolutely loaded with both pitching and hitting prospects.  For fun, I decided to break the farm system into two systems, one consisting of just pitchers and the other of hitters. From there, I'll compare each Pirates farm system to farm systems league-wide, identifying those that that one or both of the Pirates farm systems are clearly stronger than.  This will show how incredible the Pirates farm system currently is and how balanced it is as well.

Gerrit Cole: Where are the Strikeouts?

Through 12IP, Gerrit Cole has only recorded three outs via punchout.  Considering the confirmed importance of strikeouts - batters who never put a ball in play only reach base in the most rare of circumstances - this could be alarming considering the expectations surrounding Cole.  The former first overall pick is supposed to come into his own quickly and anchor the Pirates as the best starter to pitch in the steel city in decades, if not possibly ever.  A scouting reports suggests Cole could meet these expectations.  His stuff is tremendous and he pitched well in 2012, but in 2013 Cole's numbers in AAA were less than inspiring.  To date in AAA this year, Cole had only struck out 47 batters in 68 innings compared to 28 walks prior to being called up.

Pittsburgh's 25-Man Roster Set For Opening Day

The Pirates have finalised their 25-man roster ahead of today’s opener against the Chicago Cubs.

Industry Sources: Top Prospect Lists and Organizational Rankings

The last few weeks have been huge for prospecting.  Several top 100 lists, top 10 team lists, and organizational rankings have been published.  That includes lists and rankings from the major industry sources, Keith Law, John Sickels, Jonathon Mayo, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus among others.  Below is a sort of compilation, along with analysis, of those lists and rankings.  Format is by category.

International Pitching Prospects: Trend or Concidence

Quick, name the Pirates best pitching prospect brought into the organization via international free agency.  Luis Heredia probably came immediately to mind and that would fall in line with consensus view point used to answer the given challenge.   Then it gets difficult.  Name the second best pitching prospect for the Pirates acquired as an international teenager.

Pirates Pitchers Depth Chart: Next Man Up

Updated 2/13/2013

Please note and make use of the scroll bar at the bottom of the screen as there is additional info on the right side of this chart.

Depth Chart Key
Positional Players Depth Chart

Position	Player	Acquired	ST	OPT	40/R5	Throws	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
S1	A.J. Burnett1	TR12	>6.000	0	Yes	R	36/$16.5
	Gerrit Cole	DR11	0.000	3	2014	R	22	23	24	25	26	27
	Luis Heredia	Int FA10	0.000	3	2014	R	A	A+	AA	21	22	23
S2	Wandy Rodriguez2	TR12	>6.000	0	Yes	L	34/$13	35/$13
	Jameson Taillon	DR10	0.000	3	2014	R	AA	22	23	24	25	26
	Tyler Glasnow	DR11	0.000	3	2015	R	A-SS	A	A+	AA	23	24
S3	James McDonald	TR10	3.080	0	Yes	R	28/$3.025	29	30
	Charlie Morton3	TR09	4.010	0	Yes	R	29/$2	30
	Nick Kingham	DR10	0.000	3	2014	R	A+	AA	23	24	25	26
S4	Francisco Liriano4	FA13	>6.000	?	Yes	L	29/$1	30/$5-$8
	Kyle McPherson	DR07	0.036	1	Yes	R	25	26	27	28	29	30
	Clay Holmes	DR11	0.000	1	2015	R	A	A+	AA	AAA	24	25
S5	Jeff Karstens	FA13	5.132	?	Yes	R	30/$2.5
	Jeff Locke	TR09	0.058	1	Yes	L	25	26	27	28	29	30
	Justin Wilson	DR08	0.035	2	Yes	L	25	26	27	28	29	30
Closer	Jason Grilli	FA11	>6.000	0	Yes	R	36/$2.25	37/$4
	Mark Melancon	TR13	2.098	0	Yes	R	28	29	30	31
	Player projected to start the year in AAA and get called up mid-season; not eligible for arbitration
	Player is in a pre-arbitration year; contract is Major League minimum unless otherwise noted
	Player is arbitration eligible; salary, if noted, = arbitration results
	Player is under contract
	Either the Pirates or the player may exercise an option; details provided below the chart

¹ The Pirates pay $8,000,000 of Burnett’s 2013 contract.

² The Pirates pay $8,500,000 of Rodriguez’s 2013 contract. Rodriguez’s option became a player option when he was traded by Houston; the Pirates will pay $7,500,000 if the option is exercised.

³ Morton is unlikely to be available before June, 2013.

⁴ Liriano is guaranteed only $1 million in 2013; however, if he does not miss any games due to his broken right (non-throwing) arm, he can earn up to $4.75 million. The Pirates have a team option for 2014; that option will be for $5, 6, or 8 million depending upon missed games due to Liriano’s broken right arm.

2012 Biggest Prospect Disappointments

The Pirates farm system had a very good year in 2012.  Top pitching prospects Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia pitched well and stayed healthy.  In the positional player department, young Latin American prospects Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco enjoyed massive breakout seasons.  Several other players - Kyle McPherson, Jeff Locke, Nick Kingham, Barrett Barnes, Clay Holmes, Tyler Glasnow, and Wyatt Mathisen, among others - also performed well.  The net overall result was a resounding positive.  That said, it doesn't mean the system was without it's share of failures.  Looking at those failures might not be as enjoyable as the examining the success stories, but it's important to recognize the system's shortcomings. Six players that took a step backwards are listed below.

Revisiting The Charlie Morton Decision

One of the Pirates’ more contentious moves this winter has been giving Charlie Morton a one year, $2M contract extension despite the fact that he will miss half the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. It was a questionable choice at the time, however recent moves by the club is making the decision look a little worse now. 

The Pirates Should Carry Two Left-Handers In The 2013 Bullpen

One of the reasons why the Pirates could move Joel Hanrahan is due to the depth in the bullpen; Jason Grilli was signed earlier this winter with a view to close games while the newly acquired Mark Melancon will be the primary setup man. While this will be a popular topic amongst Pirates bloggers since the trade and Tim Williams has comprehensively covered the subject for Pirates Prospects; my argument is why the Pirates need to be carrying two left-handed pitchers in the bullpen this season.

Southpaw Special

Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia have several notable commonalities.  They are the top three pitching prospects in the Pirates farm system.  All three have ace upside.  In addition, all three are right handed.  Earlier this off season, the Pirates added a lefty with upside to compliment the Cole-Taillon-Heredia trio.  They shipped minor-league catcher Ramon Cabrera to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for former top prospect and southpaw pitcher Andy Oliver.

Overlooked Rotation Option

Phil Irwin

Coming into the 2013 season, Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson are the young up and coming candidates to earn a rotation spot.  Both pitchers started the 2012 season in the minor leagues before seeing action at the big league level in the latter part of the year.  Both are solid prospects and project to have a chance to be usable rotation parts for years to come.  Because of McPherson and Locke, along with top prospects Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia, another solid pitching prospect who could find his way into the rotation in the near future often gets overlooked.

Payroll Options: 2014 and Beyond

The Neal Huntington era of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization is coming to a head.  There has been success - the Pirates have been in contention for a playoff spot well into the summer the past two years - mixed with failures - contention has turned into losing seasons thanks to back-to-back epic collapses.  Because of that mix, Huntington's job is in question.  Fortunately for him, the Pirates should still be competitive the next few years, thanks in large part to superstar Andrew McCutchen and a group of veteran players, notably A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, Clint Barmes, and brand-new Pirate Russell Martin.  All four of those players have something else in common in addition to donning the black and gold.  All four have their current contracts expire by the end of the 2014 season at the latest.

As long as we're jumping to conclusions

Ok, I'll admit that title is pretty snarky. I've said a number of times in a number of places to a number of people that I think it's too early in the season to learn anything meaningful from the results. For the most part, this has been aimed at the results from Pittsburgh's major league ballclub. At the same time, I want to take a look at some things that we've seen from the Pirates' minor league affiliates. Therefore, I'm going to ignore the admittedly small sample sizes and take a look at what we've seen so far from down on the farm. If you want to point out that this is pretty hypocritical, go ahead. That's probably true. Still, I will start off by pointing out that since it is early in the year, a lot can change (for better or worse). Of course, you already knew that. Anyway, here what we know beyond a shadow of a doubt about the Pirates' minor leaguers.

Completing the Puzzle

First, I must apologize. As I have ventured out into the world and made myself a blog, I have ignored and forgotten my roots. Those roots are Bucsdugout. The knowledge I have gained here has been invaluable and that's an understatement. The same applies to the benefits of joining the friendly, passionate, and tight-knit community that is the readers here on this blog. In an attempt to return to my roots, I "offer" a post on here "free of charge." No clicking on links! No looking on my poorly formatted blog with it's awful color scheme and slow loading-ness! That said, I certainly wouldn't complain and this post will be re-posted on Buried Treasure. Enter are your own risk.

Minor League Daily Update - 4/10/2012

Indianapolis lost 4-3 to the Columbus Clippers after giving up three runs in the bottom of the ninth.  The loss evened the Indians record at 2-2.  Charlie Morton was on the hill in what should be his last rehab start before rejoining the big league team.  He was downright dominant, going 7.2 innings and giving up 6 hits, 1 walk, and 1 earned run.  Morton also struckout 8 batters and recorded 10 groundouts to 1 flyout.  Bryan Morris struck out the only batter he faced in the 8th inning before handing it over to Jo-Jo Reyes and Tim Wood in the 9th.  The pair of pitchers promptly blew the save.  Starling Marte had a great game, going 2-4 with a homerun.  Eric Fryer went 2-4 with a double and 2 strikeouts.  Brandon Boggs, Jeff Clement and Brian Friday each had one hit.  Chase D'Arnaud did not play.

Altoona lost their contest against the Akron Aeros 5-1, also leaving them with a 2-2 record.  Starting pitcher Aaron Pribanic had a rough outing.  He only lasted 3.1 innings and allowed 10 runners on base via 4 hits and 6 walks.  Pribanic did strikeout 4 batters and somehow managed to only give up 1 earned run, although he gave up 3 total.  Victor Black pitched an inning in relief, giving up 2 hits and 2 runs (1 earned), while striking out 1 batter.  Robbie Grossman went 1-4 with a strikeout and has yet to walk this year.  Jarek Cunningham went 1-4 with a double.  Cunningham has only struck out 1 time in 17 at-bats so far this year, a welcome sight considering Cunningham's struggles with striking out in the past.  Andrew Lambo had the only other Curve hit.  Tony Sanchez has a poor game, going 0-4 with 3 strikeouts.  Sanchez's OPS is still .795 on the young year despite his bad game last night.

Bradenton also lost, dropping a close contest to the Palm Beach Cardinals 2-1.  The Marauders are now 1-3 on the year.  The big story was Gerrit Cole's minor league regular season professional debut (Cole's actual professional debut was in the Arizona Fall League last season.  Cole lasted 4 innings, giving up 1 earned run on 4 hits and 1 walk.  Cole added in a wild pitch, but he displayed his immense talent and ability to miss bats, striking out 7 hitters, 5 swinging and 2 looking.  On balls put into play against him, Cole managed a 6:3 groundball to flyball ratio.  Offensively, the Marauders only managed 4 hits. Drew Maggi had a good game going 2-3 with a walk.  Evan Chambers and Mel Rojas Jr., who's hitting .313 on the year, rounded out the hitting with a base knock each.  Wes Freeman went 0-2 with a walk and a strikeout, giving him a 3:3 walk to strikeout ratio in 13 plate appearances this year, a good sign.  Freeman also hasn't managed a hit yet either.

West Virginia dropped their contest against the Asheville Tourists to complete a winless day for the Pirates minor league affiliates.  The final score was 13-5, dropping the Power's record to 1-4 on the year.  Zach Dodson got the start.  His final line was 4.2 IP, 6H, 7R, 5ER, 3BB, 3K, a poor start to the season for Dodson.  Offensively, Alen Hanson bounced back from two straight hitless games to continue his blistering hot start.  On the day, the Power shortstop - although he played DH in this game - went 3-5 with a double and a homerun.  Jodaneli Caravajal added another multi-hit game, going 2-4 with 2 runs scored.  Gregory Polanco went 1-4 with a run scored, 2 RBI's, a walk and a strikout.  Willy Garcia was 1-5.  Josh Bell did not play.

Minor League Daily Update - 4/9/2012

Indianapolis won 8-2, beating the Toledo Mud Hens to go to 2-1 on the young season.  Brad Lincoln got the nod for the Indians and had a great start.  Lincoln pitched 5 strong innings, giving up 4 hits and 1 earned run.  He struckout 6 batters and didn't walk a single one.  Starling Marte went 2-5 with a double, already bringing his average up to .308 for the year.  Jeff Clement had a big day, going 3-4 with 2 runs scored, two doubles and a walk.  Gorkys Hernandez went 1-3 with a run scored, an RBI, a walk and 2 strikeouts.  Chase D'Arnaud did not play after being hit in the head by a pitch in the game previous.  D'Arnaud was able to leave the game under his own power after the incident.

 Altoona did not play 4/8

Bradenton did not play 4/8

West Virginia dropped their contest against the Hagerstown Suns 8-6.  That gives the Power an overall record of 1-3 so far this season.  Starting pitcher Zachary Fuesser got tagged for 3 earned runs in 3 innings, giving up 2 hits and 4 walks, while recording 2 strikeouts.  Orlando Castro, Rinku Singh, and Robert Kilcrease all pitched at least one inning in relief and each pitcher gave up at least one run, although Singh's was unearned. Castro was the losing pitcher of record, as he gave up 3 earned runs in 2 innings on 4 hits and 2 walks.  Castro was unable to strikeout a batter.  Alen Hanson had his second straight hitless game, going 0-5 and dragging his tripleslash "down" to .294/.333/.588.  Hanson added a strikeout to cap his frustrating day, although he's still had a good season thus far.  Jodaneli Caravajal went 2-4 with a run scored and a triple.  Chris Lashmet and Kirk Singer also each had multi-hit games, with Lashmet managing 3 and Singer lacing 2 doubles and that helped contribute to his 4 RBI day.  Jose Osuna was 1-4 with a run scored.  Josh Bell and Willy Garcia were both hitless going 0-4 each. Bell added a strikeout and a RBI.

Minor League Daily Update - 4/6/2012

Here is the Minor League Daily Update from yesterday (4/5/2012)

Yesterday saw the season opener for three of the Pirates full-season minor league affiliates.  Altoona and Bradenton won, while West Virginia dropped their first game.  Indianapolis did not play.

Indianapolis did not play on 4/5.

Altoona won their home opener by the a score of 7-4 over the Erie Seawolves.  Reliever Matt McSwain notched the win.  Starting pitcher Mike Colla lasted 4 innings, giving up 5 hits, 2 walks, and 3 earned runs while walking 2 and striking out 3.  Offensively Robbie Grossman started off hot with 2 hits in his first two at-bats, including a 2 run homerun.  He finished 2-5 with 2 RBIs and a strikeout.  Jarek Cunningham also went 2-5 and tallied an RBI in his AA debut.  Tony Sanchez had a nice start to what will hopefully be a bounce back campaign.  The catcher went 1-3 with a triple, a walk, and a strikeout.  Pitcher Duke Welker through 2 innings, giving up a hit and an unearned run while striking out three and walking none.

Bradenton won in extra innings thanks to a walk off hit by pitch as they topped the St. Lucie Mets 3-2.  Colton Cain went 3.2 innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 runs but only one was earned.  Cain also struck out 4 batters but walked 4 as well.  Offensively Gift Ngoepe batted leadoff and went 3-5, all singles, and scored 2 runs. Alex Dickerson went 0-4 with a strikeout and a walk.  Mel Rojas Jr. went 1-4 with a double and a strikeout.  Wes Freeman played DH and went 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.  The bullpen did a good job - Eliecer Navarro, Casey Sadler, and Jhonathan Ramos - giving up 0 runs in 7.1 innings of relief.  They allowed only 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7.

West Virginia dropped an offensive shootout 11-9 to the Hagerstown Suns.  Nick Kingham got the start, but only lasted 1.2 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 walks, and 5 earned runs, although he did strike out three.  Kingham had a rough second inning he couldn't escape after giving up only an opening inning walk while striking out two in the first frame.  Offensively the pre-game star had to be Josh Bell as he made his professional debut.  However, Alen Hanson put forth his best attempt to steal the show.  Hanson day was a good start towards proving himself as a legitimate upper-echelon prospect as he went 3-4 with a double and homerun.  Hanson scored three times and drove in two runs.  He also laid down a sacrifice bunt and had an error while playing shortstop.  Willy Garcia and Gregory Polanco also each had three hits, with Garcia driving in two and striking out once.  Polance scored twice, drove in a run, and one of his hits was a triple.  Jose Osuna went 1-4 with a RBI, run, and strikeout.  Josh Bell had a mixed bag for his professional debut.  He did manage to smack an RBI double, but also struck out three times to finish 1-5.

Tomorrow's preview after the jump.

Opening Day: Minor League Edition - 4/5/2012

Four of the Pirates minor league affiliates - Indianapolis, Altoona, Bradenton, and West Virginia; all full-season squads - will be hitting the ground running over the next few weeks to start their season.  75% of the teams will play today, with Indianapolis not starting their season until tomorrow.

Indianapolis will not play today.  They square off tomorrow at 5:00 PM against the Toledo Mud Hens. The starting pitcher has not yet been announced.

Altoona faces the Erie Seawolves with the first pitch scheduled to be throw at 6:30 PM.  Michael Colla.  Notable prospects that could be playing for Altoona include returning Curve catcher Tony Sanchez and 1B Matt Curry.  Jarek Cunningham and Robbie Grossman could be making their AA debuts.

Bradenton will start off their season playing against the St. Lucie Mets.  Colton Cain will take the mound for the Marauders and the game is expected to start at 6:30 PM.  The pitching staff also includes top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon.  Positional players of note include Evan Chambers, Alex Dickerson, Wesley Freeman, and Drew Maggi.

West Virginia will play their opener on the road at 7:05 PM against the Hagerstown Suns.  The game will be televised on milb.tv. Nick Kingham is slated to start.  This should be Josh Bell's pro debut. Alen Hanson, Willy Garcia, and Jose Osuna will also suit up for the Power.

Check back tomorrow for results, top players, and info on the games for that day.

Buried Treasure Top 100 Prospects: #11-20

11. Gerrit Cole
Position: SP
Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

Not only would I have selected Bundy ahead of Taillon, I would have also selected Bundy ahead of Cole, hence that ranking.  That said, the actual #1 overall pick in 2011 is an elite prospect in his own right.  Cole has absolutely filthy stuff that rivals Stephen Strasburg, although he’s currently more reminiscent of a guy like A.J. Burnett who was unable to fully harness his arsenal due to a lack of command.  Cole’s arsenal includes three fastballs, highlighted by a 4-seamer than can consistently hit triple digits, a 2-seamer and a cut fastball.  He also has a slider that garners plus-plus grades and a changeup that flashes above-average on some days and plus-plus on others.  If everything works out well, Cole could become the most dominant pitcher in baseball for a multi-year stretch.