Best Case Scenario: Pitching Prospects

The title of this article is slightly misleading.  It's very rare for a best case scenario to actually happen. A better scenario can always be imagined. Therefore, the Pirates pitching prospects could have technically done better this year, but realistically it's hard to imagine a better overall season for the pitching strength of the Pirates farm system as a whole.  In fact, elation is probably the best word to describe the appropriate reaction of Pirates fans.  Below is a short description of all the pitchers who have a very good year for the Pirates, based loosely starting at the top on how they are viewed as a prospect currently.

Dissecting the Pirates Farm System

Over the past several years, the Pirates farm system has steadily improved under the watch of general manager Neal Huntington.  At the moment, prior to the official graduation of Gerrit Cole, it may be at its zenith.  The farm system is absolutely loaded with both pitching and hitting prospects.  For fun, I decided to break the farm system into two systems, one consisting of just pitchers and the other of hitters. From there, I'll compare each Pirates farm system to farm systems league-wide, identifying those that that one or both of the Pirates farm systems are clearly stronger than.  This will show how incredible the Pirates farm system currently is and how balanced it is as well.

Industry Sources: Top Prospect Lists and Organizational Rankings

The last few weeks have been huge for prospecting.  Several top 100 lists, top 10 team lists, and organizational rankings have been published.  That includes lists and rankings from the major industry sources, Keith Law, John Sickels, Jonathon Mayo, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus among others.  Below is a sort of compilation, along with analysis, of those lists and rankings.  Format is by category.

International Pitching Prospects: Trend or Concidence

Quick, name the Pirates best pitching prospect brought into the organization via international free agency.  Luis Heredia probably came immediately to mind and that would fall in line with consensus view point used to answer the given challenge.   Then it gets difficult.  Name the second best pitching prospect for the Pirates acquired as an international teenager.

Pirates Pitchers Depth Chart: Next Man Up

Updated 2/13/2013

Please note and make use of the scroll bar at the bottom of the screen as there is additional info on the right side of this chart.

Depth Chart Key
Positional Players Depth Chart

Position	Player	Acquired	ST	OPT	40/R5	Throws	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
S1	A.J. Burnett1	TR12	>6.000	0	Yes	R	36/$16.5
	Gerrit Cole	DR11	0.000	3	2014	R	22	23	24	25	26	27
	Luis Heredia	Int FA10	0.000	3	2014	R	A	A+	AA	21	22	23
S2	Wandy Rodriguez2	TR12	>6.000	0	Yes	L	34/$13	35/$13
	Jameson Taillon	DR10	0.000	3	2014	R	AA	22	23	24	25	26
	Tyler Glasnow	DR11	0.000	3	2015	R	A-SS	A	A+	AA	23	24
S3	James McDonald	TR10	3.080	0	Yes	R	28/$3.025	29	30
	Charlie Morton3	TR09	4.010	0	Yes	R	29/$2	30
	Nick Kingham	DR10	0.000	3	2014	R	A+	AA	23	24	25	26
S4	Francisco Liriano4	FA13	>6.000	?	Yes	L	29/$1	30/$5-$8
	Kyle McPherson	DR07	0.036	1	Yes	R	25	26	27	28	29	30
	Clay Holmes	DR11	0.000	1	2015	R	A	A+	AA	AAA	24	25
S5	Jeff Karstens	FA13	5.132	?	Yes	R	30/$2.5
	Jeff Locke	TR09	0.058	1	Yes	L	25	26	27	28	29	30
	Justin Wilson	DR08	0.035	2	Yes	L	25	26	27	28	29	30
Closer	Jason Grilli	FA11	>6.000	0	Yes	R	36/$2.25	37/$4
	Mark Melancon	TR13	2.098	0	Yes	R	28	29	30	31
	Player projected to start the year in AAA and get called up mid-season; not eligible for arbitration
	Player is in a pre-arbitration year; contract is Major League minimum unless otherwise noted
	Player is arbitration eligible; salary, if noted, = arbitration results
	Player is under contract
	Either the Pirates or the player may exercise an option; details provided below the chart

¹ The Pirates pay $8,000,000 of Burnett’s 2013 contract.

² The Pirates pay $8,500,000 of Rodriguez’s 2013 contract. Rodriguez’s option became a player option when he was traded by Houston; the Pirates will pay $7,500,000 if the option is exercised.

³ Morton is unlikely to be available before June, 2013.

⁴ Liriano is guaranteed only $1 million in 2013; however, if he does not miss any games due to his broken right (non-throwing) arm, he can earn up to $4.75 million. The Pirates have a team option for 2014; that option will be for $5, 6, or 8 million depending upon missed games due to Liriano’s broken right arm.

2012 Biggest Prospect Disappointments

The Pirates farm system had a very good year in 2012.  Top pitching prospects Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia pitched well and stayed healthy.  In the positional player department, young Latin American prospects Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco enjoyed massive breakout seasons.  Several other players - Kyle McPherson, Jeff Locke, Nick Kingham, Barrett Barnes, Clay Holmes, Tyler Glasnow, and Wyatt Mathisen, among others - also performed well.  The net overall result was a resounding positive.  That said, it doesn't mean the system was without it's share of failures.  Looking at those failures might not be as enjoyable as the examining the success stories, but it's important to recognize the system's shortcomings. Six players that took a step backwards are listed below.

Mining for Prospects: Untapped Markets

Dovydas Neverauskas hails from
baseball neophyte Lithuania

A few weeks ago, it became public knowledge that the Pirates signed Australian pitching Nick Hutchings back in November.  One of the interesting developments revealed by the signing was a relationship between Pirates and the Australian League team Adelaide Bite.  Pirates scout Tony Harris doubles as the Bite's manager.  Hutchings is also one of several players in the Pirates organization from Australia.  None of them are big-time prospects or high-profile international signings, but that may come.

#16 Pirates Prospect - Dilson Herrera

Buried Treasure Top 30 Prospects
#16 - Dilson Herrera

Measurables: 5'10, 150
Bats: R, Throws: R
Position: 2B
Acquired: IFA, 2010
Bonus: $220,000
DOB: 04/03/1994
Buried Treasure 2012 Top 20: Not Ranked

Southpaw Special

Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia have several notable commonalities.  They are the top three pitching prospects in the Pirates farm system.  All three have ace upside.  In addition, all three are right handed.  Earlier this off season, the Pirates added a lefty with upside to compliment the Cole-Taillon-Heredia trio.  They shipped minor-league catcher Ramon Cabrera to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for former top prospect and southpaw pitcher Andy Oliver.

Offeason: Potential Trade Targets v. 4.0

Black and Gold soon?

Here, I outlined a few players the Pirates could target in trades this offseason to help the team in 2013 and beyond.  Version 2.0 can be read here.  Version 3.0, here. This is a fourth installment, looking at another trio of players the Pirates could attempt to bring to Pittsburgh via trade this winter.

Overlooked Rotation Option

Phil Irwin

Coming into the 2013 season, Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson are the young up and coming candidates to earn a rotation spot.  Both pitchers started the 2012 season in the minor leagues before seeing action at the big league level in the latter part of the year.  Both are solid prospects and project to have a chance to be usable rotation parts for years to come.  Because of McPherson and Locke, along with top prospects Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia, another solid pitching prospect who could find his way into the rotation in the near future often gets overlooked.

Offseason: Potential Trade Targets v. 3.0.

Gordon would look
good in Black and Gold

Here, I outlined a few players the Pirates could target in trades this offseason to help the team in 2013 and beyond. offseason. Version 2.0 can be read here.  This is a third installment, looking at another trio of players the Pirates could attempt to bring to Pittsburgh via trade this winter.

Quietly Good

Flashy draws a crowd.  Big tools - power and speed for hitters or triple digit heat - create hype, hysteria, and often disappointment when expectations aren't met.  That doesn't prevent fans, scouts, and the media from dreaming and drooling over players who could and should turn into stars.  Little attention is given to those who simply get the job done, especially when it's done without massive power, elite speed, or a fireball for a fastball.  These players don't have a chance to be a superstar, but they are quietly good.

Offseason: Potential Trade Targets v. 2.0

Drew Pomeranz: Potential Trade Target?

Here, I outlined a few players the Pirates could target in trades this offseason to help the team in 2013 and beyond. Since then, the baseball landscape has changed drastically thanks to a blockbuster trade between the Toronto Blue Jays and Miami Marlins.  As a result, I've put together a new list detailing players the Pirates should look to add via trade this offseason. Without a further ado, Offseason: Potential Trade Targets v. 2.0.

#27 Pirates Prospect - Harold Ramirez

Buried Treasure Top 30 Prospects
#27 - Harold Ramirez

Measurables: 5'11, 175
Bats: R, Throws: R
Position: CF
Acquired: IFA, 2011
Bonus: $1,050,000
DOB: 09/06/1994
Buried Treasure 2012 Top 20: Not Ranked

Crystal Ball: The Pirates Farm System

Right now, Buried Treasure's top 30 prospects are being unveiled (check those out here).  That list, along with various prospect lists put out by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Minor League Ball, outlines the state of the Pirates farm system right now.  However, throughout next season, that farm system will continue to change and evolve.  When the season completes, more lists will come out that take the temperature of the Pirates farm system.

Buried Treasure Top 100 Prospects: #81-90

81. Jeurys Familia
Position: SP
Team: New York Mets

Familia excites scouts and fans alike with premium stuff and project-ability. His fastball touches 99 mph on occasion and sits comfortably in the mid 90's. The heater also has nice sinking and cutting action to go along with it's plus velocity, making it a lethal pitch. Along with his fastball, Familia throws an average, but inconsistent breaking ball that flashes above-average. The Mets prospect rounds out his arsenal with a raw, fringy changeup that at times displays promising sinking action. At the moment, Familia is more of a thrower than a pitcher. He's raw, especially in the control and command department. In fact, Familia's upside is currently limited to a mid-rotation starter or power reliever if he's unable to refine his command. That said, Familia still does have a bit of time to develop and there's no denying his top-of-the-rotation stuff.

#4 Prospect - Luis Heredia

Under Neal Huntington, the Pirates haven't just been committed to adding amateur talent through the draft.  They have also become a bigger player in the international market recently.  It started in 2009 when the Pirates attempted to sign top international prospects SS/3B Miguel Sano.  Unfortunately, they were unsuccessful and he signed with the Twins after significant drama involving Sano's agent.  It was a big blow for the Pirates and their fans, but the front office responded admirably.  The following year, they again attempted to sign the top international prospect on the market.  This time they succeeded and pitcher Luis Heredia became a Pirate.

Buried Treasure Top 20 Prospects

Here is my top 20 Pirates Prospects list for the 2012 season all in one place. So far I have prospects 11-20 finished.  I promise to have my entire top 20 ready for spring training, so check back frequently! Just click the link to go to that player's profile.






01 - Jameson Taillon
02 - Gerrit Cole
03 - Starling Marte
04 - Luis Heredia
05 - Josh Bell
06 - Robbie Grossman
07 - Tony Sanchez
08 - Jarek Cunningham
09 - Jeff Locke
10 - Nick Kingham
11 - Kyle McPherson
12 - Stetson Allie
13 - Alex Dickerson
14 - Colton Cain
15 - Matt Curry
16 - Zack Dodson
17 - Gorkys Hernandez
18 - Rudy Owens
19 - Zack Von Rosenberg
20 - Clay Holmes