Sunday, January 8, 2012

More on the MLB Draft

For more on the 2012 MLB Draft click here.

The Pirates draft position is not yet set, but all indications are that the Pirates will add a second compensatory pick due to losing Derrek Lee in free agency.  So far, the Pirates have the 8th overall pick along with 43rd overall pick in the compensatory round.  If Derrek Lee signs with a team other than the Pirates, they will receive currently the 52nd pick.  If Carlos Pena signs with a team other than the Cubs - which looks likely as the Cubs just acquired 1B Anthony Rizzo and are allegedly still in the market for Prince Fielder - then the Cubs will get the 52nd overall pick and the Pirates will be bumped down to the 53rd pick.

Here, Charlie over at Bucsdugout.com indicates that he asked Pirates President Frank Coonley point-blank what the money pool would be for the Pirates come June.  Coonley responded by saying he expects a number near 10 million dollars.  That number seems a bit high so lets test it. The rule of thumb is to use the 2010 slot values (2010 instead of 2011 because here, mlb.com draft expert Jonathan Mayo states "The values set for each slot in the first 10 rounds of the 2012 Draft were based primarily on 2010, with the thinking that spending in 2011 was a bit of an aberration") and multiply them by 1.5.  From this article The value for our 8th pick is $2.9 million. Using this article, it can be calculated that for virtually every team (except the Astros) the allotment for rounds 2-10 will be approximately 3 million.  Together, that is 5.9 million.

That leaves the amount for the two supplemental picks.  The 43rd pick had a slot value of 800K and there was no 53rd draft pick, but the 50th pick had a slot value of slightly over 700K.  Adding them together, the figure is 1.5 million multiplied by 1.5 to equal 2.25 million.  Add that to 5.9 million and the final total is 8.15 million.  Splitting the difference with Frank Coonley's projected number and round down a bit and 9 million dollars seems like a reasonable figure.

What follows is a potential projection for how the Pirates could use that 9 million dollars using players from 2011.   The breakdown is the position where the Pirates will draft, the position the player was drafted in 2011, the bonus amount given, and the grade given by John Sickels.

8th - Francisco Lindor (drafted 8th in 2011) - 2.9 million - B+ (projected by me)
      - Taylor Jungmann (drafted 12th in 2011) - 2.52 million - B
43rd - Andrew Chaffin (drafted 43rd in 2011) - 0.87 million - B
        - Trevor Story (drafted 45th in 2011) - 0.9 million - B
        - Keenyn Walker (drafted 47th in 2011) - 0.8 million - C+
53rd - Dwight Smith, Jr. (drafted 53rd in 2011) - 0.8 million - B-
        - Jason Esposito (drafted 64 in 2011) - 0.6 million - B-
        - Andrew Suscac (drafted 86th in 2011) - 1.1 million - B (projected by me)

If the Pirates sign Lindor, Chaffin, Esposito, and Susac (Susac with our 2nd round pick) the total will be 5.5 million.  That will leave 3.5 million for picks in rounds 3-10.  In 2011, the Pirates paid the players they drafted in rounds 3-10 3.445 million dollars, putting them 55K underneath the cap. 

Looking at my projected first four picks, and using this article for a reference, the Pirates could draft these similar players this coming year.

8th - Francisco Lindor - Carlos Correa (16) - HS SS
43rd - Andrew Chaffin - Kyle Zimmer (32) - College RHP
53rd - Jason Esposito - Stephen Piscotty (37) - College 3B
72nd* - Andrew Susac - Josh Elander (48) - College C
* Projected position

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