Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Andrew McCutchen's trade value
Andrew McCutchen's fWAR was 5.7 in 2011 and his rWAR was 5.5. In the interest of fairness, let's split the difference and give him an annual WAR of 5.6 for the life of his extension. Over seven years, McCutchen would be worth 39.2 WAR. At $5MM per marginal win, that would make 'Cutch worth a whopping $196MM. Including the team option, the Bucs will pay McCutchen $66.25MM during over the life of the contract, meaning his surplus value would be $129.75MM. Read that again. Oh yeah.
This means that McCutchen would be worth a top-10 hitting prospect, a top-10 pitching prospect, an 11-25 hitting prospect, an 11-25 pitching prospect, a 26-50 hitting prospect, a 76-100 hitting prospect and (just for fun) a C grade hitting prospect under 23. Clearly this would be quite a haul but nobody has a system this loaded.
So is there any farm system out there that could hypothetically afford the Pirates' star centerfielder? Well, Toronto could try gutting their entire farm system. A package of Travis d'Arnaud ($23.4MM), Jake Marisnick ($23.4MM), Anthony Gose ($14.2MM), Noah Snydergaard ($12.1MM), Justin Nicolino ($12.1MM), Drew Hutchison ($12.1MM), Deck McGuire ($9.8MM), Daniel Norris ($7.3MM), Aaron Sanchez ($7.3MM), AJ Jimenez ($5.5M), Joel Carreno ($1.5MM) and Adeiny Hechavarria ($0.7MM) would be worth a total of $129.4MM. Let's give 'em the benefit of the doubt and say the Bucs will eat the remaining $350K.
The Royals could offer up their entire system too, I guess. A package of Wil Myers ($25.1MM), Bubba Starling ($23.4MM), Cheslor Cuthbert ($23.4MM), Jake Odorizzi ($12.1MM), Mike Montgomery ($7.3MM), Kelvin Herrera ($7.3MM), Yordano Ventura ($7.3MM), Chris Dwyer ($7.3MM), Christian Colon ($5.5MM), Elier Hernandez ($5.5MM) and Brett Eibner ($5.5MM) would be worth $129.7MM. It also might be more interesting because of the star power involved.
The Mariners have a top-heavy system that might get it done. Offering Jesus Montero ($36.5MM), Taijuan Walker ($15.9MM), Danny Hultzen ($15.9MM), James Paxton ($15.9MM), Nick Franklin ($14.2MM), Vinnie Catricala ($5.5MM), Francisco Martinez ($5.5MM), Alex Liddi ($5.5MM), Phillips Castillo ($5.5MM), Brad Miller ($5.5MM), Stephen Pryor ($2.1MM), and Victor Sanchez ($2.1MM) would have a total trade value of $130.1MM so the Pirates might have to kick in a few thousand bucks to make it work.
Again, none of this is meant to suggest that the Pirates are going to trade Andrew McCutchen. This is not the same thing as Nate McLouth. Even if they were looking to shop him, none of the teams above would be willing to completely obliterate their farm system for one player, even one as special as Andrew McCutchen. Still, it's a pretty shocking way of seeing just how valuable #22 really is.