The Swing Frequencies of the Pirates Offense

The 2013 season is 19 games old for the Pittsburgh Pirates; yet hot or cold starts are still nothing more than that in most cases due to the small sample size of the season. However, a hitter’s swing rate is something that tends to begin to stabilize early on in the season (at around 50 plate appearances) and the Bucs have eight hitters that can be examined using this statistic.

Starling Marte's Hot Start

Through the first thirteen games of the season, Starling Marte has a triple slash line of .370/.404/.519 in 57 plate appearances, picking up 20 hits – five of which went for extra bases (three doubles, one triple and a home run) - and is currently on a nine-game hitting streak. Marte has been the Pirates’ best hitter so far; his .402 wOBA is almost 50 points higher than Travis Snider’s .355 wOBA.

The Current Focus on Splits in Clint Hurdle's Line-Ups

Clint Hurdle’s line-ups so far this season have had a focus on spits (with a lefty-righty balance against right-handed pitching). For example, the clean-up spot has been filled by Pedro Alvarez against right-handers and Gaby Sanchez against lefties, with Garrett Jones and Neil Walker hitting second against righties and Russell Martin against lefties (although Walker will hit second against Clayton Kershaw tonight). The only consistencies have been Starling Marte leading off, Andrew McCutchen hitting third and Clint Barmes eighth.

A Look At The Current Batting Order

Clint Hurdle has elected to continue with the Opening Day line-up for the second game of the season, despite the Pirates offense struggling in the season opener with Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija on the mound. While much of the focus centered around Gaby Sanchez’s presence ahead of Travis Snider, I believe that Hurdle’s line-up is really the bigger issue.

Notes After Opening Day

The 2013 season did not begin in an ideal fashion for the Pittsburgh Pirates, dropping the opener to the Cubs while offering little at the plate. Nonetheless, one defeat doesn’t mean that the Pirates are going to struggle, much like a win today wouldn’t have meant that the Bucs were going to be contenders. The Pirates have a shot at bouncing back on Wednesday night, with Wandy Rodriguez getting the start against Edwin Jackson. Drawing conclusions on how the season is likely to pan out would be nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction at this point; however there are some noteworthy items after today's game:

Pittsburgh's 25-Man Roster Set For Opening Day

The Pirates have finalised their 25-man roster ahead of today’s opener against the Chicago Cubs.

Projecting The Offense: Center Field

Out of all of my Projecting the Offense series, this post is the easiest. Andrew McCutchen is the club’s best hitter and will lead the offense again in 2013. The only thing that could hold him back from being a prominent player in the MVP conversation is his team mates – given the BBWAA’s preference for players to win the award being members of contending teams. 

2012: 673 PA, 29 doubles, 6 triples, 31 home runs, .327/.400/.553, .403 wOBA, 20 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 675 PA, 34 doubles, 6 triples, 24 home runs, .286/.372/.483, .363 wOBA, 22 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 673 PA, 31 doubles, 6 triples, 24 home runs, .283/.372/.480, .365 wOBA, 23 stolen bases 

Oliver: 626 PA, 29 doubles, 5 triples, 25 home runs, .290/.374/.500, .375 wOBA, 23 stolen bases 

Projecting The Offense: Left Field

When Starling Marte finally arrived in the big leagues last summer, he became the 28th player in major-league history to go deep on his first pitch seen. Marte really came as advertised; power, speed and great defense combined with little patience at the plate. While Clint Hurdle’s old-school approach to building a line-up will likely force Marte into a role that his skillset is not really suited for, he should still continue to develop into one of the more dynamic Pittsburgh Pirates hitters. 

2012 (Minors): 431 PA, 21 doubles, 13 triples, 12 home runs, .286/.347/.500, .372 wOBA, 21 stolen bases 

2012 (Majors): 182 PA, 16 doubles, 6 triples, 5 home runs, .257/.300/.437, .316 wOBA, 12 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 551 PA, 28 doubles, 11 triples, 15 home runs, .297/.336/.479, .350 wOBA, 31 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 578 PA, 27 doubles, 14 triples, 11 home runs, .264/.311/.428, .317 wOBA, 24 stolen bases 

Oliver: 602 PA, 27 doubles, 9 triples, 16 home runs, .268/.317/.436, .325 wOBA, 27 stolen bases 

Projecting The Offense: Third Base

Pedro Alvarez took a step forward in 2012 after a miserable 2011, hitting 30 home runs on his way to becoming one of the strongest hitters in the Pirates line-up. While it appears that Alvarez will begin the season as the Pirates clean-up hitter, he will need to continue to progress at the plate this season if he is going to find success in this role.

2012: 586 PA, 25 doubles, 1 triple, 30 home runs, .244/.317/.467, .335 wOBA, 1 stolen base

2013 Projections:

Bill James: 597 PA, 29 doubles, 2 triples, 29 home runs, .257/.336/.481, .349 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

ZiPS: 610 PA, 26 doubles, 2 triples, 29 home runs, .236/.315/.451, .327 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

Oliver: 548 PA, 24 doubles, 2 triples, 22 home runs, .234/.313/.427, .320 wOBA, 2 stolen bases

Crystal Ball: Future Trade Targets v. 1.0

This is the beginning of a series that identifies potential trade targets for the Pirates in the future. Explained is the reasoning behind why the Pirates should look to make a big splash in the trade market in the next few years. This version of the series includes Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, and Chris Sale.  Immediately after the jump is the primer I will use for the entire series.

Russell Martin's Role In The Potential Success Of This Winter

Neal Huntington has made some big additions, as well as a noteworthy subtraction, this winter. He’s traded his closer for a quartet of players, with Mark Melancon and possibly Jerry Sands beginning the year in Pittsburgh, re-signed Jason Grilli and Jeff Karstens as well as further strengthening the rotation with Francisco Liriano. However, I believe that the success of the winter will reside on the performance of the club’s new catcher, especially if the offense fails to progress further in 2013. 

In Defense of the Front Office

The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't completed a season with a winning record in two decades.  While all of that isn't on current general manager Neal Huntington's hands, a good chunk - arguably one-fourth - of it is.  Therefore, to claim Huntington is or should be immune from intense criticism would be asinine. That's undeniable.

All that hashed out, I personally believe Neal Huntington, and the entire front office he has assembled, have the Pirates on the right track. In addition, I think there is evidence indicating such a statement is true.  My argument consists of several factors, broken down piece-by-piece in the paragraphs below.

The Pirates and Taking the Platoon Advantage

Andrew McCutchen is the Pirates' best hitter by a wide margin and performs at a high level when facing both left and right handed pitching – highlighted by weighted on-base averages of .471 against lefties and .385 against righties in 2012. The problem is that he’s also the only Pirate to provide above average production at the plate against both sets of pitchers. One of the focuses I have had over this winter over at Pirates Musings, as well as my brief time here, is on the benefits of using platoons or at least taking advantage of platoon situations, something the Pirates should be looking to do on an everyday basis.

Payroll Options: 2014 and Beyond

The Neal Huntington era of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization is coming to a head.  There has been success - the Pirates have been in contention for a playoff spot well into the summer the past two years - mixed with failures - contention has turned into losing seasons thanks to back-to-back epic collapses.  Because of that mix, Huntington's job is in question.  Fortunately for him, the Pirates should still be competitive the next few years, thanks in large part to superstar Andrew McCutchen and a group of veteran players, notably A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, Clint Barmes, and brand-new Pirate Russell Martin.  All four of those players have something else in common in addition to donning the black and gold.  All four have their current contracts expire by the end of the 2014 season at the latest.

Cutch 2012

Superstar

As every Pirates fan and virtually every baseball fan now knows, the Pirates collapsed at the end of the 2012 season for the second year in a row.  The collapse was spectacular, epic, and cruel.  As late as August, there was legitimate playoff hope.  A winning season was all but guaranteed.  Then it all fell apart.  The Pirates - once 16 games over .500 - finished the season at 79-83.

Lost in the shuffle somewhat was what it did to Andrew McCutchen.  It's hard to say McCutchen collapsed - his numbers in August weren't awful and his numbers in September were well above-average - but he did lose an MVP.  Had he done slightly better in August and had the Pirates made the playoff, "Cutch" would have almost assuredly won the MVP award.  Unfortunately, that did not happen.

Despite that, McCutchen had a phenomenal season by any standards.  In 2012, McCutchen went from budding superstar to one of the best players in the planet.  Such a great season deserves a breakdown.

Unlikely Extension Candidate

Starting pitcher Brad Lincoln has been a disappointment for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Over the last 2+ seasons, the Bucs have given the, now-27 year old, several shots to grab a spot in the rotation and it just hasn’t worked out. He’s been OK at times, good at others but mediocre far too often. As a starter, Lincoln becomes too much of a one-pitch pitcher. His fastball doesn’t maintain its velocity as well over extended outings and his change has not been very effective against major league hitters so he is often left with hitters just sitting on his curve. For a former #4 draft pick, a player taken ahead of Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw, this…well…sucks. Hear me out, though…

Extension Candidate Not Named Neil Walker

How about this guy?

I've said this a lot over the last week, but I'll say it again.  The Pirates signed Andrew McCutchen to an extension! Great news for the Pirates undoubtedly, but Neal Huntington's work is far from done.  Before the ink could even dry on McCutchen's contract the focus shifted to contract extension talks with second baseman Neil Walker.  MLB Trade Rumors immediately detailed what an extension would look like, seemingly justifying such a move. David Todd over at Bucs Dugout offered his theory that such an extension is probably a poor idea.  According to Walker himself, the talks haven't "gone very far" yet. 

Andrew McCutchen's trade value

Before people totally lose their minds, I am not advocating this move. I don't think it will happen and I am not saying that the front office was just trying to build up McCutchen's trade value so they can ship him off to the highest bidder. However, since I have seen a few people mention this and considering how McCutchen's enormous trade value was a hotly discussed topic before the extension, I figured I'd at least crunch the numbers and see what I came up with.

What if everything goes right?

The Pirates are punting on 2012.  Or they’re going to contend in a weakened NL Central that no longer features Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols.  Rod Barajas and Clint Barmes are going to age poorly and the North Side Notch is going to rob them of whatever power they might have had left. Or they are good defenders who will anchor two of 2011’s most unstable positions. AJ Burnett is too old and can’t be an effective starter anymore. Or he’s a 200 inning workhorse with a 93 MPH fastball who will benefit from a move to a weaker division. Pedro Alvarez will hit 5 home runs and strike out 30% of the time. Or he will hit 25 home runs and will strike out…well…29% of the time. With Spring Training upon us again, everybody has seemingly come up with their own opinions about what kind of season we are in for. What are realistic expectations, though? I guess the only way to answer that is to look at both ends of the spectrum. Since I’m a positive guy, I’ll start by looking at what we can expect in 2012 if everything goes right.

The Pirates and Contract Extensions

What do Evan Longoria and Matt Moore
have to do with the Pirates and
Contract  Extensions? Click to find out!

Big news! The Pirates signed Andrew McCutchen to an extension! By now, whoever is reading this probably already knows.  It's awesome news.  Digging a bit further though, I'd like to comment on an interesting observation I had, specifically about contract extensions.

The McCutchen extension fell in line with two recent extensions that have created a model.  The Arizona Diamondbacks were able to sign Justin Upton followed by the Cincinnati Reds signing Jay Bruce to virtually identical contracts. Both players were like McCutchen, young outfielders going into the third year, their last year prior to arbitration.  Point being, the parallels are more than obvious.  That's not the only model though and it may not be the best.