Best Case Scenario: Pitching Prospects

The title of this article is slightly misleading.  It's very rare for a best case scenario to actually happen. A better scenario can always be imagined. Therefore, the Pirates pitching prospects could have technically done better this year, but realistically it's hard to imagine a better overall season for the pitching strength of the Pirates farm system as a whole.  In fact, elation is probably the best word to describe the appropriate reaction of Pirates fans.  Below is a short description of all the pitchers who have a very good year for the Pirates, based loosely starting at the top on how they are viewed as a prospect currently.

Dissecting the Pirates Farm System

Over the past several years, the Pirates farm system has steadily improved under the watch of general manager Neal Huntington.  At the moment, prior to the official graduation of Gerrit Cole, it may be at its zenith.  The farm system is absolutely loaded with both pitching and hitting prospects.  For fun, I decided to break the farm system into two systems, one consisting of just pitchers and the other of hitters. From there, I'll compare each Pirates farm system to farm systems league-wide, identifying those that that one or both of the Pirates farm systems are clearly stronger than.  This will show how incredible the Pirates farm system currently is and how balanced it is as well.

Industry Sources: Top Prospect Lists and Organizational Rankings

The last few weeks have been huge for prospecting.  Several top 100 lists, top 10 team lists, and organizational rankings have been published.  That includes lists and rankings from the major industry sources, Keith Law, John Sickels, Jonathon Mayo, Baseball America, and Baseball Prospectus among others.  Below is a sort of compilation, along with analysis, of those lists and rankings.  Format is by category.

International Pitching Prospects: Trend or Concidence

Quick, name the Pirates best pitching prospect brought into the organization via international free agency.  Luis Heredia probably came immediately to mind and that would fall in line with consensus view point used to answer the given challenge.   Then it gets difficult.  Name the second best pitching prospect for the Pirates acquired as an international teenager.

Pirates Pitchers Depth Chart: Next Man Up

Updated 2/13/2013

Please note and make use of the scroll bar at the bottom of the screen as there is additional info on the right side of this chart.

Depth Chart Key
Positional Players Depth Chart

Position	Player	Acquired	ST	OPT	40/R5	Throws	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
S1	A.J. Burnett1	TR12	>6.000	0	Yes	R	36/$16.5
	Gerrit Cole	DR11	0.000	3	2014	R	22	23	24	25	26	27
	Luis Heredia	Int FA10	0.000	3	2014	R	A	A+	AA	21	22	23
S2	Wandy Rodriguez2	TR12	>6.000	0	Yes	L	34/$13	35/$13
	Jameson Taillon	DR10	0.000	3	2014	R	AA	22	23	24	25	26
	Tyler Glasnow	DR11	0.000	3	2015	R	A-SS	A	A+	AA	23	24
S3	James McDonald	TR10	3.080	0	Yes	R	28/$3.025	29	30
	Charlie Morton3	TR09	4.010	0	Yes	R	29/$2	30
	Nick Kingham	DR10	0.000	3	2014	R	A+	AA	23	24	25	26
S4	Francisco Liriano4	FA13	>6.000	?	Yes	L	29/$1	30/$5-$8
	Kyle McPherson	DR07	0.036	1	Yes	R	25	26	27	28	29	30
	Clay Holmes	DR11	0.000	1	2015	R	A	A+	AA	AAA	24	25
S5	Jeff Karstens	FA13	5.132	?	Yes	R	30/$2.5
	Jeff Locke	TR09	0.058	1	Yes	L	25	26	27	28	29	30
	Justin Wilson	DR08	0.035	2	Yes	L	25	26	27	28	29	30
Closer	Jason Grilli	FA11	>6.000	0	Yes	R	36/$2.25	37/$4
	Mark Melancon	TR13	2.098	0	Yes	R	28	29	30	31
	Player projected to start the year in AAA and get called up mid-season; not eligible for arbitration
	Player is in a pre-arbitration year; contract is Major League minimum unless otherwise noted
	Player is arbitration eligible; salary, if noted, = arbitration results
	Player is under contract
	Either the Pirates or the player may exercise an option; details provided below the chart

¹ The Pirates pay $8,000,000 of Burnett’s 2013 contract.

² The Pirates pay $8,500,000 of Rodriguez’s 2013 contract. Rodriguez’s option became a player option when he was traded by Houston; the Pirates will pay $7,500,000 if the option is exercised.

³ Morton is unlikely to be available before June, 2013.

⁴ Liriano is guaranteed only $1 million in 2013; however, if he does not miss any games due to his broken right (non-throwing) arm, he can earn up to $4.75 million. The Pirates have a team option for 2014; that option will be for $5, 6, or 8 million depending upon missed games due to Liriano’s broken right arm.

2012 Biggest Prospect Disappointments

The Pirates farm system had a very good year in 2012.  Top pitching prospects Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia pitched well and stayed healthy.  In the positional player department, young Latin American prospects Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco enjoyed massive breakout seasons.  Several other players - Kyle McPherson, Jeff Locke, Nick Kingham, Barrett Barnes, Clay Holmes, Tyler Glasnow, and Wyatt Mathisen, among others - also performed well.  The net overall result was a resounding positive.  That said, it doesn't mean the system was without it's share of failures.  Looking at those failures might not be as enjoyable as the examining the success stories, but it's important to recognize the system's shortcomings. Six players that took a step backwards are listed below.

Revisiting The Charlie Morton Decision

One of the Pirates’ more contentious moves this winter has been giving Charlie Morton a one year, $2M contract extension despite the fact that he will miss half the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. It was a questionable choice at the time, however recent moves by the club is making the decision look a little worse now. 

Southpaw Special

Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia have several notable commonalities.  They are the top three pitching prospects in the Pirates farm system.  All three have ace upside.  In addition, all three are right handed.  Earlier this off season, the Pirates added a lefty with upside to compliment the Cole-Taillon-Heredia trio.  They shipped minor-league catcher Ramon Cabrera to the Detroit Tigers in exchange for former top prospect and southpaw pitcher Andy Oliver.

Overlooked Rotation Option

Phil Irwin

Coming into the 2013 season, Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson are the young up and coming candidates to earn a rotation spot.  Both pitchers started the 2012 season in the minor leagues before seeing action at the big league level in the latter part of the year.  Both are solid prospects and project to have a chance to be usable rotation parts for years to come.  Because of McPherson and Locke, along with top prospects Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Heredia, another solid pitching prospect who could find his way into the rotation in the near future often gets overlooked.

Payroll Options: 2014 and Beyond

The Neal Huntington era of the Pittsburgh Pirates organization is coming to a head.  There has been success - the Pirates have been in contention for a playoff spot well into the summer the past two years - mixed with failures - contention has turned into losing seasons thanks to back-to-back epic collapses.  Because of that mix, Huntington's job is in question.  Fortunately for him, the Pirates should still be competitive the next few years, thanks in large part to superstar Andrew McCutchen and a group of veteran players, notably A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, Clint Barmes, and brand-new Pirate Russell Martin.  All four of those players have something else in common in addition to donning the black and gold.  All four have their current contracts expire by the end of the 2014 season at the latest.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 5 Moves in an Alternate Universe

Time Vortex!

Everyone would love to re-write history at some point, whether it's involving a monumental event in history or a personal experience that had a giant life impact. Here at Buried Treasure, we'd like to re-write history as well. Here are five moves that the Pirates could have made that would have altered the recent path of the franchise significantly.  Do remember though, hindsight indeed is twenty-twenty.

Crystal Ball: The Pirates Farm System

Right now, Buried Treasure's top 30 prospects are being unveiled (check those out here).  That list, along with various prospect lists put out by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and Minor League Ball, outlines the state of the Pirates farm system right now.  However, throughout next season, that farm system will continue to change and evolve.  When the season completes, more lists will come out that take the temperature of the Pirates farm system.

As long as we're jumping to conclusions

Ok, I'll admit that title is pretty snarky. I've said a number of times in a number of places to a number of people that I think it's too early in the season to learn anything meaningful from the results. For the most part, this has been aimed at the results from Pittsburgh's major league ballclub. At the same time, I want to take a look at some things that we've seen from the Pirates' minor league affiliates. Therefore, I'm going to ignore the admittedly small sample sizes and take a look at what we've seen so far from down on the farm. If you want to point out that this is pretty hypocritical, go ahead. That's probably true. Still, I will start off by pointing out that since it is early in the year, a lot can change (for better or worse). Of course, you already knew that. Anyway, here what we know beyond a shadow of a doubt about the Pirates' minor leaguers.

Completing the Puzzle

First, I must apologize. As I have ventured out into the world and made myself a blog, I have ignored and forgotten my roots. Those roots are Bucsdugout. The knowledge I have gained here has been invaluable and that's an understatement. The same applies to the benefits of joining the friendly, passionate, and tight-knit community that is the readers here on this blog. In an attempt to return to my roots, I "offer" a post on here "free of charge." No clicking on links! No looking on my poorly formatted blog with it's awful color scheme and slow loading-ness! That said, I certainly wouldn't complain and this post will be re-posted on Buried Treasure. Enter are your own risk.

Minor League Daily Update - 4/13/2012

The Indians dropped another close game, this time losing to the Columbus Clippers 5-4.  Jeff Locke had a rocky outing as the starter, giving up 5 earned runs on 8 hits in 5.0 innings.  Locke did not walk a batter and struck out 3.  Daniel Moskos pitched a perfect inning in relief.  At the plate, Starling Marte hit leadoff and went 1-4 with a strikeout.  Jordy Mercer went 1-4 with 2 strikeouts, but the one hit was a three run blast.  Eric Fryer went 1-4 with a run scored.  Brandon Boggs managed the rare golden sombrero, going 0-4 with 4 strikeouts.

The Curve lost their contest against the Richmond Flying Squirrels 7-3.  Mike Colla started and lasted 5.0 innings, giving up 9 hits, 6 runs (4 earned), while striking out 2 batters and walking one.  Robbie Grossman hit lead off for the Curve and went 1-4 with 2 strikeouts.  He has still yet to walk and has struck out 8 times in 26 at-bats.  Brock Holt went 2-4 with a run scored and a strikeout.  Jarek Cunningham went 0-3 with a walk, a run scored, and a strikeout.  Tony Sanchez matched Cunningham with an identical line.  Matt Curry went 1-4.

Bradenton lost a pitching duel 1-0 to Fort Myers.  Colton Cain got the nod as the starter for the Pirates and had a solid outing.  He lasted 5.0 innings and gave up 2 hits and a walk.  Cain also struck out 2 batters.  At the dish, Mel Rojas Jr. by far had the best game of the Marauders hitters.  Playing right field, Rojas Jr. went 3-3 with a double and a triple.  Wes Freeman went 0-3 with a strikeout and a walk.  Alex Dickerson, Drew Maggi, and Gift Ngoepe each had a single, all going 1-4 with Dickerson adding a strikeout to his final daily line.

The Power managed to prevent an affiliate sweep of losing, beating Greenville 5-1.  Matt Benedict started for the Power and the Orlando Castro came in to pitch most of the rest of the game in relief.  Both had excellent outings.  Benedict lasted 5.0 innings, giving up 5 hits and an unearned run.  He also struck out 4 batters while only walking 1 batter.  Castro struck out 4 batters in 3.0 innings, while only walking one and giving up a sole hit.  Jordan Cooper also pitched a perfect inning with a strikeout.  Offensively, 4 power players had big days.  Alen Hanson hit leadoff for the Power and went 3-4 with 3 runs scored, a triple, a homerun, a walk, and a strikeout.  His OPS on the year now stands at 1.297 and Hanson has maintained a solid 4:6 BB:K ratio in 34 at-bats.  Jose Osuna also had 3 hits, including 2 doubles, a walk and a strikeout.  Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco each had 2 base knocks.  Bell added a double and a strikeout.  Polanco added a homerun - his second in as many days - and a walk.

Minor League Daily Update - 4/8/2012

Indianapolis won it's first game of the season to improve to 1-1 by beating the Toledo Mud Hens 8-7.  Jeff Locke got the start and only managed to last 4 innings thanks to giving up 8 hits.  Those 8 hits only resulted in 2 runs however, and Locke walked no hitters and struck out four.  Offensively, Starling Marte went 1-4 with 2 strikeouts.  Jordy Mercer had a big day going 4-6 with a double, a run scored, and an RBI.  Brandon Boggs went 2 for 5 with 3 runs scored, a triple, a homerun, a RBI, and 2 strikeouts. Eric Fryer and Jeff Clement both had multi-hit games.  News of note; Chase D'Arnaud was hit by a pitch and exited the game immediately.

Altoona got shellacked by the Erie Seawolves 12-1 to go to 2-1 on the season.  Starting pitcher Brandon Cumpton gave up 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings, also allowing 7 hits and walking one batter.  He did fan two batters as well.  In relief, Victor Black pitched 1 inning and gave up 2 hits and 2 unearned runs. Offensively, Altoona did manage 7 hits, but none for extra bases.  Matt Curry and Robbie Grossman both had two hits, and Curry had the lone RBI.  Tony Sanchez managed to score the run, going 0-2 with a strikeout.

Brandeton also lost, dropping their contest against St. Lucie, 4-2, putting them 1-2 on the year.  Starting was top prospect Jameson Taillon.  He finished with an interesting line in 3.2 innings.  Taillon only gave up 2 hits and 2 walks, but also hit a batter and had several wild pitches.  It resulted in 2 earned runs.  However - and my favorite stat - Taillon also finished with 6 strikeouts, all six swinging.  Offensively, Gift Ngeope finally slowed down, going 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.  Both Alex Dickerson and Mel Rojas Jr. were 2-4, and Rojas Jr. added a triple and a strikeout.  Wes Freeman was 0-2 with a walk while playing left field.  Quinton Miller got some relief action in, going 2 innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 earned runs.

The Power dropped a close game to the Hagerstown Suns, 4-3.  Matt Benedict started for the power and got tagged with an unfortunate loss.  He pitched very well, going 4.2 innings, giving up 0 earned runs (3 unearned) and 3 hits.  Benedict also walked 3 batters but struck out an impressive number of 7.  Offensively, Alen Hanson finally did not have a hit.  He did manage a walk and a run in 3 at-bats.  Josh Bell went 0-3 with a walk and a strikeout.  Willy Garcia was 1-4, with a double, RBI, and strikeout.  Jose Osuna was one of two Power with a multi-hit night, going 2-4 with a strikeout.  Junior Sosa was the other player with 2 as he went 2-3 with a triple.

Minor League Daily Update - 4/7/2012

The Pirates four full-season minor league affiliate teams played yesterday and finished the day 2-2.  Altoona and West Virginia won, while Indianapolis and Bradenton walked away in defeat.  All four teams are also scheduled to play tomorrow.

Indianapolis lost its opener to the Toledo Mud Hens 5-1.  Justin Wilson got the start and pitched 5.0 innings.  He only gave up 2 hits, but walked 6 batters and gave up 3 earned runs, although Wilson also fanned 6 batters.  Chase D'Arnaud led off and went 0-3 with a run scored, a walk, and 3 strikeouts. Starling Marte went 1-4 in his AAA debut with a deep RBI triple and a strikeout.  Jordy Mercer, Eric Fryer, and Gorkys Hernandez each had a hit, giving the Indians a total of four hits.  Reliever Bryan Morris had an inning for the ages.  His inning was perfect and he managed to strike out four batters because of a dropped third strike.  His K/9 currently sits at a nearly impossible to reach 36/9. 

Altoona bested the Erie Seawolves 4-2 to go to 2-0 on the young season.  Nathan Baker started for the Curve and pitched an efficient 5.0 innings, only giving up 2 hits, 2 walks, and an earned run while striking out 5 hitters.  Tim Alderson did well in relief, giving up a hit and a walk, while striking out 3 in 2.0 innings.  Robbie Grossman led off and went 1-5 with a run and 2 strikeouts.  Jarek Cunningham had another good day, going 2-4, with a run, a double, and 2 RBI's.  Tony Sanchez also went 2-4 and he added a double and an RBI.  Ramon Cabrera DH'd and went 0-4.  Quincy Latimore, Elevys Gonzalez, Matt Curry, and Andrew Lambo all each had one hit, while Brock Holt managed two hits. 

Brandeton lost their second game against the St. Lucie Mets to go to 1-1 on the season.  A.J Burnett struck out 5 in 4.2 innings in a rehab start.  He only gave up 2 hits and a walk, totaling in an earned run.  No one had multiple hits on the Marauders, Gift Ngoepe managed a triple.  Alex Dickerson has yet to get a hit on the season, going 0-4 without a strikeout or a walk.  Wes Freeman was once again the DH and went 0-2, but did manage to avoid striking out and actually drew a walk as well.  Tyler Waldron got rocked coming from the pen, giving up 4 hits and 4 runs, 3 of them earned, in 2.2 inning of play.  Waldron also walked 3 batters, but did strikeout two.

Stetson Allie took the ball for the Power and the results were disastrous.  Unfortunately that might be putting it lightly.  Allie only managed to get one out before exiting the game.  He walked the first 4 batters; that sequenced included 3 wild pitches.  He then struck out a better before hitting another batter, driving in a total of two runs thus far.  Michael Jefferson came in and struck out the next two Hagerstown Suns, limiting the damage.  That ultimately helped the Power to win 5-3.  Alen Hanson was again the offensive star, going 2-5 with a double, an RBI, and a strikeout. Hanson also scored twice.  Josh Bell was also 2-5 with an RBI, but both hits were singles and he struck out in each of his other at-bats (3). Jose Osuna went 1-4 and scored a run.  Willy Garcia was 0-4 with 2 strikeouts and an RBI. Gregory Polanco also struck out twice and managed no hits, but he walked once, so he finished 0-3.  Interesting stat alert: the Power gave up more runs than they gave up hits and had errors combined.  The Power gave up 2 hits and committed no errors, but allowed three runs. 

Information about today's games after the jump.

Minor League Daily Update - 4/6/2012

Here is the Minor League Daily Update from yesterday (4/5/2012)

Yesterday saw the season opener for three of the Pirates full-season minor league affiliates.  Altoona and Bradenton won, while West Virginia dropped their first game.  Indianapolis did not play.

Indianapolis did not play on 4/5.

Altoona won their home opener by the a score of 7-4 over the Erie Seawolves.  Reliever Matt McSwain notched the win.  Starting pitcher Mike Colla lasted 4 innings, giving up 5 hits, 2 walks, and 3 earned runs while walking 2 and striking out 3.  Offensively Robbie Grossman started off hot with 2 hits in his first two at-bats, including a 2 run homerun.  He finished 2-5 with 2 RBIs and a strikeout.  Jarek Cunningham also went 2-5 and tallied an RBI in his AA debut.  Tony Sanchez had a nice start to what will hopefully be a bounce back campaign.  The catcher went 1-3 with a triple, a walk, and a strikeout.  Pitcher Duke Welker through 2 innings, giving up a hit and an unearned run while striking out three and walking none.

Bradenton won in extra innings thanks to a walk off hit by pitch as they topped the St. Lucie Mets 3-2.  Colton Cain went 3.2 innings, giving up 4 hits and 2 runs but only one was earned.  Cain also struck out 4 batters but walked 4 as well.  Offensively Gift Ngoepe batted leadoff and went 3-5, all singles, and scored 2 runs. Alex Dickerson went 0-4 with a strikeout and a walk.  Mel Rojas Jr. went 1-4 with a double and a strikeout.  Wes Freeman played DH and went 0-4 with 2 strikeouts.  The bullpen did a good job - Eliecer Navarro, Casey Sadler, and Jhonathan Ramos - giving up 0 runs in 7.1 innings of relief.  They allowed only 4 hits and 2 walks while striking out 7.

West Virginia dropped an offensive shootout 11-9 to the Hagerstown Suns.  Nick Kingham got the start, but only lasted 1.2 innings, giving up 4 hits, 2 walks, and 5 earned runs, although he did strike out three.  Kingham had a rough second inning he couldn't escape after giving up only an opening inning walk while striking out two in the first frame.  Offensively the pre-game star had to be Josh Bell as he made his professional debut.  However, Alen Hanson put forth his best attempt to steal the show.  Hanson day was a good start towards proving himself as a legitimate upper-echelon prospect as he went 3-4 with a double and homerun.  Hanson scored three times and drove in two runs.  He also laid down a sacrifice bunt and had an error while playing shortstop.  Willy Garcia and Gregory Polanco also each had three hits, with Garcia driving in two and striking out once.  Polance scored twice, drove in a run, and one of his hits was a triple.  Jose Osuna went 1-4 with a RBI, run, and strikeout.  Josh Bell had a mixed bag for his professional debut.  He did manage to smack an RBI double, but also struck out three times to finish 1-5.

Tomorrow's preview after the jump.

Opening Day: Minor League Edition - 4/5/2012

Four of the Pirates minor league affiliates - Indianapolis, Altoona, Bradenton, and West Virginia; all full-season squads - will be hitting the ground running over the next few weeks to start their season.  75% of the teams will play today, with Indianapolis not starting their season until tomorrow.

Indianapolis will not play today.  They square off tomorrow at 5:00 PM against the Toledo Mud Hens. The starting pitcher has not yet been announced.

Altoona faces the Erie Seawolves with the first pitch scheduled to be throw at 6:30 PM.  Michael Colla.  Notable prospects that could be playing for Altoona include returning Curve catcher Tony Sanchez and 1B Matt Curry.  Jarek Cunningham and Robbie Grossman could be making their AA debuts.

Bradenton will start off their season playing against the St. Lucie Mets.  Colton Cain will take the mound for the Marauders and the game is expected to start at 6:30 PM.  The pitching staff also includes top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon.  Positional players of note include Evan Chambers, Alex Dickerson, Wesley Freeman, and Drew Maggi.

West Virginia will play their opener on the road at 7:05 PM against the Hagerstown Suns.  The game will be televised on milb.tv. Nick Kingham is slated to start.  This should be Josh Bell's pro debut. Alen Hanson, Willy Garcia, and Jose Osuna will also suit up for the Power.

Check back tomorrow for results, top players, and info on the games for that day.

Buried Treasure Top 100 Prospects: #1-10

1. Mike Trout 
Position: CF
Team: Los Angeles Angels

Justin Upton, B.J. Upton, Adrian Beltre, Andrew Jones, Edgar Renteria, Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Juan Gonzalez, and Gary Sheffield.  Along with Trout, those 10 players are the entirety of an exclusive club of players who hit a homerun during their respective age 19 seasons.   Excluding the Upton brothers, who are still in the midst of their careers, Trout will end up with at least 38.7 fWAR as long as he doesn’t finish as the ‘worst’ player on this list, behind Juan Gonzalez.  Using the same list of players (excluding the Upton brothers again), if Trout becomes an ‘average’ player, he will end his career with 67.9 fWAR.  Granted, hitting a homerun at a certain age is a seemingly arbitrary statistic, and it is to a degree, but getting to the majors that fast is impressive and indicative of incredible talent.  Trout managed to do that on the back of his impressive hit tool, good plate discipline, and blazing speed that allows him to be an elite defensive centerfielder.  As absurd as it sounds, 67.9 fWAR doesn’t seem too much of a stretch.