Saturday, December 29, 2012

Revisiting The Charlie Morton Decision

One of the Pirates’ more contentious moves this winter has been giving Charlie Morton a one year, $2M contract extension despite the fact that he will miss half the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. It was a questionable choice at the time, however recent moves by the club is making the decision look a little worse now. 

The Pirates wanting to keep him is not surprising, although it is surprising that he remained on the roster instead of being non-tendered and offered a minor league or split contract. While Morton is not especially expensive at $2M, that money could and should have been better spent elsewhere. Instead the Pirates may be spending $2M in 2013 on a pitcher that they do not need; and the Bucs are not a club that can afford to pay more than the league minimum a pitcher that could very easily be ranked eighth on the club’s rotation depth chart by the time he’s healthy. 

A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, James McDonald, Jeff Locke and Kyle McPherson were projected to be the rotation after Jeff Karstens was designated for assignment (prior to being non-tendered) when Morton was given his new contract. In the minors, Gerrit Cole will be promoted at some point in 2013 – probably before Morton is healthy as well. Furthermore, the club have since agreed to terms with Francisco Liriano, pushing Morton down to eighth on the depth chart. 

That of course is not mentioning pitchers like Phil Irwin, Jameson Taillon and even Justin Wilson (if he begins the year in the Triple-A rotation instead of the bullpen), all of whom could be in the Indianapolis rotation by the time that Morton is working his way back to full strength. Furthermore, if a pitcher is needed over the summer, with others not deemed as ready, then the club could trade for an upgrade at the deadline if they were still in contention. 

Given his health and the depth in place for next season, keeping Morton really has more to do with the 2014 rotation, as he has that further year of control that Karstens did not have. The problem is that the two year contract given to Liriano nullifies that value. The 2014 rotation will include Liriano and Cole, with Rodriguez’s option likely to be exercised and McDonald, Locke and McPherson battling to join the trio. Furthermore, the latest that Taillon will be ready for the rotation is the summer of 2014; so even at this point it appears that there are seven viable options for the rotation. All of this is without considering the addition of a free agent veteran next winter. 

Morton’s name is often mentioned when discussing the Joel Hanrahan trade, as his salary was partly responsible for the club needing to move the closer. While Hanrahan’s likely salary would still have pushed the club over the $70M threshold, so Morton’s contract is not completely responsible for the club having to move the closer; the Hanrahan trade was still a solid baseball move that should have been done earlier. The main reason why is that the club should only be spending on a closer is if there are no issues that need to be addressed on the rest of the roster, which cannot be said about the Pirates at this time. 

Nonetheless, the main effect that Morton’s salary could now have is that it may limit what the club can do at the deadline. Again, $2M is not a huge amount, but it may be the difference between the club making or not making an addition at the deadline or even the level of prospect surrendered in a trade. 

The front office may not have anticipated the possibility of signing a starting pitcher to a two-year deal when they agreed to a new deal with Charlie Morton, yet a review of internal options for this season and next should have highlighted that committing to the righty at that point was an unnecessary expenditure. The Hanrahan trade highlighted this unnecessary spending again; however it’s the two-year deal given to Liriano that should make the club’s decision regarding Morton much more questionable.

8 comments:

  1. On the other hand, if Morton has completed his rehab by the trade deadline and his mid-90's sinker has returned, he could either be a valuable reliever and spot starter, or an even more valuable trade chip.

    I'm not in love with the signing, but he does have a lot of upside. He was a pretty solid starter in 2011 and could be so again in 2014. If he has any sort of "normal" rehab arc from TJ, he's a good bet to be reasonably effective down the stretch, maybe even he can contribute to averting a 3rd straight collapse.

    I'd a whole lot rather see them spend $11 million on Liriano, Morton, Melancon, Sands, and deJesus that $7.5 million on Hanrahan and $3.5 million on a bottom-of-the rotation starter off the FA market. It's all about the sort of risk management necessary in any salary-capped environment.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I completely agree re Hanrahan; he had to moved with or without the Morton signing. I just don't think that they had to bring him back on a major league deal. It would have been a risk worth taking last season, however Gerrit Cole makes it an unnecessary risk for next season.

      Delete
  2. You can never have enough quality pitching, especially "Starters"! Resigning Morton is a good move and gives the Bucs options around trade deadline if he's healthy and ready to start, as well as in 2014. Good pitching is worth more than any position in the game, see the contracts that are being given to even mediocre starters.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Wandy's option is a player option NOT a club option (it changed when he was traded). If he has a good season he'll be able to get a new deal worth $30-40M over 3 years in FA and will pass on the player option leaving us needing another starter.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I know you're new to this board … your writing grates a bit. You must be very young because you come off as incredibly self-sure and your arguments tend to rest *way* too heavily on assumptions i.e. "Cole will be promoted in 2013", "the latest Taillon could arrive is 2014".

    This is much ado about nothing. The Pirates retain two years of control (1.5 of possible performance) by adding $2M to sunk cost. They like Morton's stuff and approach. It's rare to find that sort of mix at that pricetag.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. With Cole and Taillon, I went with projected time of arrivals, putting into consideration keeping both in the minors long enough to be assured to miss Super Two status. Yes, if they stumble at their respected levels this season then things will change.

      Part of the point in writing the above was that Morton's name has often been mentioned as a reason why Hanrahan was traded, which really isn't the case. The effect of bringing Morton back on a major league deal won't be known until the summer/next winter, depending on his rehab (especially with how long it takes for him to regain command) and the performance of other members of the rotation. It’s just that given his situation I do think that if he was non-tendered he would not have received major league contract offers elsewhere.

      Delete
  5. Don't forget about Andy Oliver either!

    ReplyDelete
  6. How about making Morton a closer down the line? Start him in the pen once he's ready and have him good to go once Grilli's time is up.

    ReplyDelete