The Swing Frequencies of the Pirates Offense

The 2013 season is 19 games old for the Pittsburgh Pirates; yet hot or cold starts are still nothing more than that in most cases due to the small sample size of the season. However, a hitter’s swing rate is something that tends to begin to stabilize early on in the season (at around 50 plate appearances) and the Bucs have eight hitters that can be examined using this statistic.

Pedro Alvarez's Early Season Slump

After looking at Russell Martin’s start to the season, it’s natural that a fellow struggler who hit his first home run of the season against the Braves on Thursday night should follow. Many people saw Pedro Alvarez as one of the most important players on the roster if the Pirates are to be successful this season; however Alvarez will need to refine his approach at the plate if he’s going to hit for more than power this season. 

Highlighting Russell Martin's Plate Discipline

When I wrote about the start of Russell Martin’s Pirates career at the plate yesterday, I stated that his low batting average on balls in play combined with his plate discipline indicated that he would likely see a turnaround in fortunes. What I didn't expect was to see an immediate example of how his selectivity at the plate will help him break out of his slump. 

Russell Martin's Unfortunate Start To His Pirates Career

Russell Martin was the Pirates’ big free agent addition over the winter, signing the largest major league free agent contract in club history. While his Pirates career his started slowly offensively, he has helped the club defensively; FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan looked at the impact that Martin has had with his pitch framing skills and noted a big change for the Bucs. However, as good as Martin could be defensively he will soon need to offer something at the plate in order for him to have value to the club. 

The Current Focus on Splits in Clint Hurdle's Line-Ups

Clint Hurdle’s line-ups so far this season have had a focus on spits (with a lefty-righty balance against right-handed pitching). For example, the clean-up spot has been filled by Pedro Alvarez against right-handers and Gaby Sanchez against lefties, with Garrett Jones and Neil Walker hitting second against righties and Russell Martin against lefties (although Walker will hit second against Clayton Kershaw tonight). The only consistencies have been Starling Marte leading off, Andrew McCutchen hitting third and Clint Barmes eighth.

A Look At The Current Batting Order

Clint Hurdle has elected to continue with the Opening Day line-up for the second game of the season, despite the Pirates offense struggling in the season opener with Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija on the mound. While much of the focus centered around Gaby Sanchez’s presence ahead of Travis Snider, I believe that Hurdle’s line-up is really the bigger issue.

Notes After Opening Day

The 2013 season did not begin in an ideal fashion for the Pittsburgh Pirates, dropping the opener to the Cubs while offering little at the plate. Nonetheless, one defeat doesn’t mean that the Pirates are going to struggle, much like a win today wouldn’t have meant that the Bucs were going to be contenders. The Pirates have a shot at bouncing back on Wednesday night, with Wandy Rodriguez getting the start against Edwin Jackson. Drawing conclusions on how the season is likely to pan out would be nothing more than a knee-jerk reaction at this point; however there are some noteworthy items after today's game:

Pittsburgh's 25-Man Roster Set For Opening Day

The Pirates have finalised their 25-man roster ahead of today’s opener against the Chicago Cubs.

Projecting The Offense: Catcher

Russell Martin is the first player up as I look at 2013 projections. He received the largest major league contract that the franchise has ever given a free agent to upgrade the club both defensively and offensively. He is also the major/only addition to a below average offense, so will need to improve on his 2012 performance if the Pirates are going to see the upgrade that the team as a whole requires if the club will continue to progress in 2013. 

2012: 485 PA, 18 doubles, 21 home runs, .211/.311/.403,.316 wOBA, 6 stolen bases 

2013 Projections: 

Bill James: 524 PA, 22 doubles, 16 home runs, .242/.340/.394,.322 wOBA, 8 stolen bases 

ZiPS: 466 PA, 19 doubles, 12 home runs, .238/.329/.373, .310 wOBA, 7 stolen bases 

Oliver: 484 PA, 21 doubles, 16 home runs, .244/.333/.408, .325 wOBA, 5 stolen bases

Pirates Positional Players Depth Chart: Next Man Up

Updated 2/13/2013.

Please note and make use of the scroll bar at the bottom of the screen as there is additional info on the right side of this chart.

Depth Chart Key
Pitchers Depth Chart

Position	Player	Acquired	ST	OL	40/R5	Bats	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
C	Russell Martin	FA13	>6.000		Yes	R	30/$6.5	31/$8.5
	Michael McKenry	TR11	1.136	1	Yes	R	28	29	30	31	32
	Tony Sanchez	DR09	0.000	3	2012	R	AAA	25	26	27	28	29
1B	Garrett Jones	MiFA08	3.158	0	Yes	L	31/$4.5	32	33
	Gaby Sanchez	TR12	3.025		Yes	R	29/$1.75	30	31
	Clint Robinson	TR13	0.007	2	Yes	L	28	29	30	31	32	33
	Matt Curry	DR10	0.000	3	2013	L	AA	25	26	27	28	29
2B	Neil Walker	DR04	2.166	1	Yes	SW	27	28	29	30
	Ivan De Jesus Jr	TR13	0.147	0	No	R	AAA	26	27	28	29	30
	Jarek Cunningham	DR08	0.000	3	2012	R	AA	AAA	25	26	27	28
SS	Clint Barmes	FA12	>6.000		Yes	Allegedly	34/$5.5
	Jordy Mercer	DR08	0.118	2	Yes	R	26	27	28	29	30	31
	Chase d’Arnaud	DR08	0.125	1	Yes	R	26	27	28	29	30	31
3B	Pedro Alvarez	DR08	2.085	0	Yes	L	261/$700k	272	28	29
	Josh Harrison	TR09	1.095	1	Yes	R	25	26	27	28	29
LF	Starling Marte	Int FA07	0.070	3	Yes	R	24	25	26	27	28	29
	Alex Presley	DR06	1.091	1	Yes	L	27	28	29	30	31
	Adalberto Santos	DR10	0.000	3	2013	R	AAA	26	27	28	29	30
	Barrett Barnes	DR12	0.000	3	2015	R	A+	AA	AAA	24	25	26
CF	Andrew McCutchen	DR05	3.123	3	Yes	R	26/$4.5	27/$7.25	28/$10	29/$13	30/$14	31/$14.753
	Gregory Polanco	Int FA09	0.000	3	2013	L	A+	AA	AAA	24	25	26
	Mel Rojas, Jr.	DR10	0.000	3	2013	SW	AA	AAA	24	25	26	27
RF	Travis Snider	TR12	2.091		Yes	L	25	26	27	28
	Jose Tabata	TR08	2.081	1	Yes	R	24	25	26	27	284	29
	Jerry Sands	TR13	0.094	1	2015	R	25	26	27	28	29	30
	Josh Bell	DR11	0.000	3	2015	SW	A+	AA	AAA	23	24	25
	Player projected to start the year in AAA and get called up mid-season; not eligible for arbitration
	Player is in a pre-arbitration year; contract is Major League minimum unless otherwise noted
	Player is arbitration eligible; salary (if noted) = arbitration results
	Player is under contract
	Either the Pirates or the player may exercise an option; details provided below the chart

¹ The Pirates exercised a team option for 2013 on 10/31/2012

² The Pirates have a team option for $700,000 for 2014. The player may void the option if eligible for arbitration.

³ The Pirates have a team option for 2018.

⁴ The Pirates have team options for 2017, 2018, and 2019.

All courtesy of Trogluddite
Key

Russell Martin's Role In The Potential Success Of This Winter

Neal Huntington has made some big additions, as well as a noteworthy subtraction, this winter. He’s traded his closer for a quartet of players, with Mark Melancon and possibly Jerry Sands beginning the year in Pittsburgh, re-signed Jason Grilli and Jeff Karstens as well as further strengthening the rotation with Francisco Liriano. However, I believe that the success of the winter will reside on the performance of the club’s new catcher, especially if the offense fails to progress further in 2013. 

George Kottaras DFA'd; Could he be a Platoon Option for the Pirates?

In the aftermath of the three team trade between the A’s, the Mariners and the Nationals that saw John Jaso, Mike Morse and a couple of prospects swap clubs, Oakland designated catcher George Kottaras for assignment. Kottaras is a player that I would hope that the Pirates would have some interest in acquiring, given that he is a left-handed hitter who would provide the club with a platoon option behind the plate and pinch-hitting flexibility off the bench. 

Could the Pirates still make a splash?

At this point, I think that you could make a pretty strong case that the Pirates have made their last flashy move of the 2012-13 offseason. They already signed Russell Martin to the largest free agent contract in team history. Then they came out of nowhere to sign a high upside starting pitcher in Francisco "BetaMax" Liriano (can this be his new nickname? Yes, I'm officially going to make this his nickname). Finally, they traded closer Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox in a solid if somewhat uninspired move.

It wouldn't surprise me to see a couple more pieces shuffled around. They might try to sign another LOOGY or a veteran bench bat, but I don't think there's anything else that will land on the front page the Trib's sports section. Honestly, that's probably a good thing. Most of the splashy moves don't really seem like good fits to me. Sure, landing Justin Upton in a trade would be exciting but it doesn't sound like Arizona wants to sell low on him, and I certainly don't want to overspend. Many of the remaining big name free agents were given qualifying offers from their former teams and I'd hate to see the Pirates give up the #14 pick in the draft (Oscar Mercado?) for the privilege to overpay Kyle Lohse. Still, I can't help but feel like there's one move that the Pirates should...although probably won't...really consider.

Joel Hanrahan Traded To The Red Sox

The Joel Hanrahan deal is finally complete, with the closer and Brock Holt heading to the Red Sox in exchange for Jerry Sands, Stolmy Pimentel, Ivan De Jesus Jr and Mark Melancon. Chad Beck has  been designated for assignment in a corresponding roster move to make room on the 40-man roster for Sands, Pimentel and Melancon. 

The Pirates and Taking the Platoon Advantage

Andrew McCutchen is the Pirates' best hitter by a wide margin and performs at a high level when facing both left and right handed pitching – highlighted by weighted on-base averages of .471 against lefties and .385 against righties in 2012. The problem is that he’s also the only Pirate to provide above average production at the plate against both sets of pitchers. One of the focuses I have had over this winter over at Pirates Musings, as well as my brief time here, is on the benefits of using platoons or at least taking advantage of platoon situations, something the Pirates should be looking to do on an everyday basis.